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2nd May 2022 18:00U.K., Daily Monitor, Weekly Monitor

The near-term outlook for households' real disposable income looks bleak; we still expect GDP to drop in Q2.

A recession, however, isn't our base case; people have ample scope to draw on savings and to borrow more.

We now Bank Rate to top out at 1.25% this year, not 1.00%, but still think markets have lost the plot.

composite pmi consumer credit cpi cpi inflation credit disposable income government labour labour market monetary policy mpc new orders pmi policy producer prices q2 q3 retail sales savings us vat wage growth

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Keywords for: Forecast Review, The Near-Term Outlook for GDP Has Worsened

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