Pantheon Macroeconomics

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28th Mar 2022 00:00U.K., Daily Monitor, Weekly Monitor

  • A recession has ensued on four of the five past times when consumers' confidence is as low as it is currently.
  • The outlook for households' real disposable income is ghastly; we now expect a 2.5% y/y drop in 2022...
  • ...But if employment keeps rising, people should be will- ing to draw on savings to maintain their real spending.

April consumer consumer credit consumption cpi credit deposits disposable income distributive trades survey economy employee numbers employment February growth households income index inflation January labour labour market March November oil oil prices producer prices q4 recession retail retail sales savings Spring Statement survey tax unemployment

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Keywords for: Does the Plunge in Confidence Signal an Imminent Recession?

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