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19th Oct 2021 18:00U.K., Economic Monitor

  • The OBR likely will revise smaller its "scarring" estimate only to 2.5% of GDP, from 3.0% previously.
  • The resulting uplift to future tax revenues will be offset by higher projections for interest payments.
  • Mr. Sunak will have little, if any, headroom in meeting his target for a balanced current budget in three years' time.

bank BoE borrowing budget chancellor debt deficit e.u. economy election employment forecast forecasts gdp gilt government growth households inflation interest payments it labour labour market market market expectations measures obr ONS productivity productivity growth re-election remain spending supply tax tax revenues taxes unemployment unemployment rate

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