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3rd Feb 2023 15:54U.K., Weekly Monitor

  • CPI inflation now looks set to fall below the 2% target by the end of this year, due to the sharp fall in energy prices.
  • The resulting support to households' real incomes should ensure GDP starts to rise again, slowly, from Q3.
  • Firms, however, still look set to reduce employment and slow wage growth; the MPC needn't hike rates again.

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Keywords for: 6 Feb 2023 UK Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence