Pantheon Macroeconomics

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18th Nov 2022 15:34U.K., Weekly Monitor

  • The OBR's forecast for the effective mortgage rate looks
    implausibly high; we expect a smaller drop in RHDI...
  • ...But its forecast for the saving rate to fall to a joint-record low, supporting spending, jars with past experience.
  • The saving rate usually rises when the unemployment rate increases; rising rates will spur debt repayments.

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Keywords for: 21 Nov 2022 UK Monitor

debt, households, mortgage, obr, uk, unemployment, unemployment rate, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence