Pantheon Macroeconomics

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14th Jun 2023 15:37U.K., Daily Monitor

  • The trend in GDP still looks flat, materially worse than implied by the recent business surveys...
  • ...primarily because they are not registering the impact of the drop in construction work and public sector strikes.
  • Looking ahead, mortgage refinancing is an unhelpful headwind, but it likely will not trigger a recession.

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Keywords for: 15 June 2023 UK Monitor

construction, construction output, construction sector, disposable income, education, energy, interest rates, July, mortgage, mortgage rates, mortgages, public sector, q3, q4, recession, refinancing, savings, surveys, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence