Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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withdrawl agreement

9 Sept 2020 A 2% Uplift to the CPI Looms, Without an E.U. Trade Deal

After three years, we think the level of the CPI would be about 2% higher if the U.K. falls back on WTO terms for trade with the E .U. than if a deep Free Trade Agreement is...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

29 May 2020 The Government will Blink on Brexit, Though Not Until the Last Minute

For now, the U.K. government still insists that the Brexit transition period will end in December, regardless of whether a new trade deal has been negotiated with the E.U. or not.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th May 2020 14:10U.K.

11 May 2020 More QE Coming in June, Following Inaction from the MPC Last Week

The MPC's pause for breath last week disappointed a majority of investors, who thought that it would at least tweak aspects of the support programmes put in place in March.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th May 2020 20:10U.K.

25 Feb 2020 Markets Look Complacent About the Outcome of E.U. Trade Talks

We find it remarkable, after the market volatility induced by the two Brexit deadlines in 2019, that investors do not foresee another bump in the road at the end of this ye ar,...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Feb 2020 13:10U.K.

7 Feb 2020 Are U.K. Equities Still Trading at a Big Brexit-related Discount?

The rally in U.K. equities immediately after the general election has done little to reverse the prolonged period of underperformance relative to overseas markets since the E.U....

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Feb 2020 13:10U.K.

9 Jan 2020 Higher Investment Alone won't Solve the U.K.'s Productivity Problem

Productivity statistics released yesterday continued to paint a bleak picture. Output per worker rose by a mere 0.1% year-over-year in Q3, despite jumping by 0.6%...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Jan 2020 13:00U.K.

4 Dec 2019 Better Times Lie Ahead for the Construction Sector

2019 is a year many in the construction sector would prefer to forget.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

29 Nov 2019 The Recovery in Sentiment Will Be Fleeting, if the Tories' Majority is Small

The emergence last month of a new E.U. Withdrawal Agreement that has a strong chance of being ratified by MPs appears to have given a small boost to business confidence.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Nov 2019 13:10U.K.

21 Oct 2019 No Lasting Relief for the Economy, if the New Brexit Deal Eventually Passes

The government now has a 50:50 chance of getting the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament in the coming weeks, despite Letwin's successful amendment and...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Oct 2019 20:10U.K.

7 Oct 2019 Business Investment is not Destined to Slump, Despite Brexit Risks

Make no mistake, business investment has been depressed by Brexit uncertainty over the last year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Oct 2019 20:10U.K.

23 Sept 2019 Could a Tweaked Brexit Deal get Through the Commons?

Sterling rallied to $1.25 last week--its highest level against the dollar since Boris Johnson became PM in mid-July--amid growing speculation that a Brexit deal still was...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Sep 2019 20:10U.K.

14 Aug 2019 Labour Market Data Point to Higher Rates if a No-Deal Brexit is Averted

Another month, another strong set of labour market data which undermine the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Aug 2019 14:10U.K.

15 July 2019 The MPC is Set to Delay for Longer, but Procrastination has a Price

We are pushing back our forecast for the next rise in Bank Rate to May 2020, from the tail-end of this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Jul 2019 20:10U.K.

5 July 2019 Sterling has no Parachute in the Event of a No-deal Brexit

Just how low would sterling go in the event of a no-deal Brexit? When Reuters last surveyed economists at the start of June, the consensus was that sterling would settle between...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Jul 2019 14:10U.K.

21 May 2019 The MPC Will Shun its Strategy of Waiting for Brexit Uncertainty to Fade

The chances of the first phase of the Brexit saga concluding soon declined sharply last week.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th May 2019 14:10U.K.

9 May 2019 March GDP Likely to Continue the Run of Above-Consensus Prints

We're among a small minority of economists forecasting that GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in March.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th May 2019 17:10U.K.

8 April 2019 Don't Rule Out a 2019 Rate Hike, if the Brexit Extension is Long

The point when businesses and households can breathe a sigh of relief about Brexit looks set to be delayed again this week.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Apr 2019 20:10U.K.

3 April 2019 Is there a Majority in the Commons for Any Brexit Proposal?

Once again, MPs failed to coalesce around any way forward for Brexit in the indicative votes process on Monday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Apr 2019 14:10U.K.

29 March 2019 Is There Any Way Through the Brexit Bind?

The Prime Minister appears set to have one more go at getting the House of Commons to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement today.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Mar 2019 14:10U.K.

28 March 2019 Super Low Gilt Yields Aren't Warranted by the Economic Outlook

Gilt yields have tumbled, with the 10-year sliding to just 1.0%, from 1.2% a week ago.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)27th Mar 2019 14:10U.K.

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