Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- The MPC would ease monetary policy again in the unlikely event that another lockdown is imposed.
- Fiscal policy would be less supportive than in previous lockdowns; new curbs would dampen inflation.
- Negative rates are in the toolkit and are preferred to more QE; Bank Rate likely would be cut to -0.25%.
- Households last month saved the least and borrowed the most for consumption since the pandemic began...
- ...People are maintaining their spending while real incomes are falling; they aren't bingeing.
- Firms continued to repay external finance in October, but this isn't necessarily a bad sign for investment.
- Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
- The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
- The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.
- October's rise in retail sales volumes was driven solely by people buying Christmas presents earlier than usual.
- Consumers' confidence recovered in November, but still is below-average, and will drift down over the winter.
- A large minority of people remain fearful of Covid; rising cases likely will instil greater caution over the winter.
- The ONS' BIC survey suggests the recovery stalled in both October and November
- OpenTable figures show that the boom in dining out has faded in November.
- We expect quarter-over-quarter GDP growth to slow to 1.0% in Q4, from 1.5%, and below the consensus, 1.1%
- U.K. exports in Q3 were 14% below their 2018 average, a larger shortfall than in any other G7 economy.
- It's not just services exports; U.K. goods exports are well below their pre-Covid level; Brexit is to blame.
- Several potential further headwinds loom, including the risk of further trade barriers from the EU.
- We think GDP merely held steady in September, undershooting the consensus and the BoE's forecast.
- Data from other countries show that industrial pro- duction was impeded by component shortages.
- Car sales fell sharply in September, while the "stay- cationing" boost to the hospitality sector ended.
- The MPC will stop reinvestments in Q1 and start selling gilts in Q4 2022, if markets are right about rates.
- The impact of asset sales is unknown and the MPC wants them to be on auto pilot, so they will be cautious.
- Gilt sales of £10B per quarter would balance creating future stimulus space with keeping markets steady.
- In one line: High street retailers hurt by fuel shortages.
- August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
- Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
- We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.
- In one line: Collateral damage from the fuel shortages.
- Revisions to Q2 GDP data brightened the picture of the economy's recent trade performance...
- ...But Brexit still is preventing U.K. exporters from benefiting fully from the upswing in global trade.
- The return of the structural deficit in services trade will cause net trade to weigh on GDP growth in 2022.
- The fall in the composite PMI in September chimes with other data suggesting growth was sluggish in Q3.
- Survey data also suggest the number of furloughed workers has fallen only marginally in recent weeks.
- GDP growth will disappoint the BoE's expectations in Q3 and Q4, making a rate hike in Q1 2022 unlikely.
- Public borrowing in August was only slightly below the OBR's forecast; interest payments are picking up.
- We think the OBR will revise its long-term "scarring" estimate only to 2.5%, from 3.0% previously...
- ...The workforce has continued to contract this year, confounding the OBR's hopes of a rebound.
- August's drop in retail sales was broad-based; the recovery in overall spending now is sluggish.
- Real disposable income will drop by 1.5% q/q in Q4, as employment falls, inflation soars, and benefits are cut.
- RHDI will recover in Q1, but then flatline in Q2, in response to the rise in employees' NICs rates.
Markets now expect the MPC to raise Bank Rate twice next year, with the first hike as soon as February.
The MPC, however, will focus on labour market slack and the prospects for its elimination, not just inflation.
The recovery has faded, implying many furloughed staff will be underemployed in Q4; the MPC needn't rush.
- In one line: Drop should fuel doubts about how soon the MPC will hike interest rates.
- In one line: Rotation, not stagnation, to blame for slower growth in sales.
- GDP likely held steady in July, falling short of the consensus and the level implied by the BoE's Q3 forecast.
- Surging Covid cases depressed output in the distribution, food services and education sectors.
- A decline in new Covid-19 vaccinations probably led to a reduction in output in the health sector too.
- From now on, the U.K. Monitor on the first Monday of each month will summarise recent forecast changes.
- We now think GDP flatlined in July, so our Q3 fore- cast, 1.5% q/q, is well below the consensus, 2.4%.
- Our 3.7% forecast for the CPI inflation in Q4—probably the peak—is below the MPC's new 4.0% estimate.