Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

survey data

8 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Jubilee-Linked Drop in June GDP to Obscure the Economy's Pulse

We think that GDP dropped by 1.6% month-to-month in June, almost entirely due to the extra public holiday.

GDP fell by 2.2% in 2002 and 1.7% in 2012; changes in the economy's composition since then won't help much.

Our forecast implies GDP fell by 0.3% q/q in Q2, but this probably won't mark the start of a recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, July 2022

  • In one line: Resilience of order books suggests sector still some way from recession.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, July 2022

  • In one line: Underlying trend in output likely flat, despite the resilience of the PMI.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Surging Mortgage Rates Point to an Outright Drop in House Prices

House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.

New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.

A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, July 2022

  • In one line: The mix of falling demand and high stock levels points to lower production and falling output price inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Forecast Review: Fiscal Policy and Lower Saving Likely to Avert Recession

We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.

But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.

People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Will a Household Saving Drawdown Keep a Winter Recession at Bay?

Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.

On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.

Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 July 2022 UK Monitor Is Britain Really Faring Better than Other Advanced Economies?

The U.K. composite PMI in July was above the 50.0 mark, in contrast to the U.S. and the Eurozone.

We think that this strength can be largely explained by the small manufacturing sector and recent fiscal policy.

Ofgem's energy price cap will rise by a further 23% in April, if the recent surge in wholesale prices is sustained.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 July 2022 UK Monitor Active Gilt Sales Likely will be at the Low End of Bailey's Proposed Range

The BoE is considering active gilt sales that would result in a reduction in the APF of £50B-to-£100B in year one.

This implies active sales of £15B-to-£65B if they begin in Q4; we expect sales at the lower end of that range.

The CBI’s Distributive Trades Survey shows retailers’ stock levels are far too high; discounting will intensify.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, July & Q3

  • In one line: Q3 will be a false dawn for retailers. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July & Q3

  • In one line: Consistent with an imminent slowing in producer price inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 July 2022 UK Monitor PMI Data Imply no Need for the MPC to act "Forcefully" Next Week

PMI data for July show that the recovery in GDP has nearly ground to a halt and inventory is piling up.

Employment growth slowed to a 15-month low, while the pace of input and output price rises eased materially.

On balance, the latest data imply the MPC won't act "forcefully"; market pricing for August is still too high.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 July 2022 UK Monitor June's CPI Data Unlikely to Spur the MPC to Hike by 50bp Next Month

The headline rate of CPI inflation topped the MPC forecast in June, due to higher motor fuel and food prices.

But the core rate fell, undershooting its forecast, as retailers struggled to pass on higher producer prices.

Core CPI inflation will fall sharply early next year, when recent falls in commodity prices will feed through.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 July 2022 Reviving Workforce Growth Eases the Pressure for Large Rate Hikes

The Governor emphasised at Mansion House that the drop in the workforce has been a key driver of rate rises.

So its 0.8% 3m/3m rise in May, the largest since 1984, should ensure the MPC sticks to a 25bp hike in August.

The workforce has scope to rebound further, while vacancy and survey data imply job growth will slow.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, May/June 2022

  • In one line: The workforce is starting to bounce back, preventing the labour market from tightening further.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 July 2022 Business Investment Still Looks Set to Rise, Reducing Recession Risks

Business investment fell in Q1, partly due to supply disruption preventing orders being fulfilled.

But supply shortages are easing, and with Brexit and Covid uncertainty dissipating, capex should rebound.

A renewed rebound in business investment will support GDP growth in the second half of the year.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

11 July 2022 GDP Likely Failed to Rebound in May after April's Drop

We think GDP held steady in May, setting up a much larger quarterly drop in Q2 than the MPC expects.

The ONS will adjust for the extra working day due to the movement of the usual late May public holiday to June.

Momentum in business services likely was offset by falls in output in the retail and hospitality sectors.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 July 2022 The Plunge in Commodity Prices has Improved the 2023 Inflation Outlook

June's Decision Maker Panel Survey shows firms' expectations for price and wage rises have increased.

But households' inflation expectations have fallen back, and more importantly, commodity prices have plunged.

Core goods CPI inflation will turn negative next year, helping to return the headline rate to 2% by late 2023.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, June 2022

  • In one line: The survey’s signal of steady growth in Q2 shouldn’t be trusted.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 July 2022 Forecast Review: The Inflation Roller Coaster has Become Even Steeper

The MPC and consensus still aren't downbeat enough on Q2 GDP; we look for a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter drop.

CPI inflation now looks set to approach 11% in October, driven by further huge rises in food and energy prices...

...But wage growth and inflation expectations haven’t risen, while producer price inflation now is set to plunge.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence