Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- Year-over-year growth in house prices slowed in July, following the tapering of government support.
- Expect a further slowdown in Q4, when the SDLT threshold will return to £125K and real incomes will fall.
- The outlook for 2022, however, is brighter; falling mortgage rates and tight supply will support prices.
- Payroll employee numbers returned in August to their pre-Covid peak, but will dip in Q4, after furlough ends.
- We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; slack within firms will build too.
- Three-month-on-three-month annualised growth in wages fell to 3.2% in July; slack will keep it in check.
- In one line: Not yet tight enough for strong underlying wage growth; slack to increase in Q4.
- Surging Covid-19 cases largely were responsible for the near-stagnation of GDP in July.
- The virus no longer is driving labour shortages, but many remain fearful and will spend less if it picks up.
- We still look for quarter-on-quarter growth in 1.5% in Q3, half the rate expected by the MPC.
- In one line: Rotation, not stagnation, to blame for slower growth in sales.
- GDP likely held steady in July, falling short of the consensus and the level implied by the BoE's Q3 forecast.
- Surging Covid cases depressed output in the distribution, food services and education sectors.
- A decline in new Covid-19 vaccinations probably led to a reduction in output in the health sector too.
- In one line: No sign of shortages of raw materials or staff lessening yet.
- In one line: Consistent with other evidence pointing to much lower GDP growth in Q3.
- Shortages of workers and, to a lesser extent, materials, should ease in Q4, enabling output to rise.
- Businesses plan to invest more over the coming quarters, and can continue to adapt to Covid-19.
- Public sector output will rise too; school attendance will pick up and waiting lists will keep hospitals busy.
- In one line: Slowing growth in output attributable to both supply constraints and demand.
- Households' stock of excess savings rose in July to 8.3% of 2020 GDP, after another cautious month.
- The proportion of credit card debt repaid rose to a record high; ad hoc mortgage payments were high too.
- Businesses aren't borrowing either, though capex still looks set to recover from rock-bottom levels in 2022.
- Businesses are reporting low inventory in relation to demand, but shops remain well-stocked for now.
- Labour shortages should fade now that self-isolation rules have eased and the holiday season is nearly over.
- The workforce, however, is 2.2% below its pre-Covid trend; migration and participation won't fully recover.
- In one line: Partial recovery in sales likely in August, but outlook further ahead is flat.
- In one line: Recovery losing momentum as supply constraints bite.
- The Delta variant is to blame for July's fall in retail sales, not the rain, zeal for dining out, or alleged shortages.
- Surveys show households were less willing to visit both shops and services providers last month.
- Retailers are unlikely to benefit from any future recovery in consumers' confidence.
- House price growth surged to 13.2% in June—the highest rate since late-2004—from 9.8% in May.
- As government support fades and inflation rises, squeezing real incomes, price growth will slow...
- ...But lower mortgage rates will prevent a marked slowdown; we have revised up our 2022 forecasts.
- The pace of month-to-month increases in consumer prices slowed in July; the re-opening surge is over.
- CPI inflation still is set to rise sharply, but the peak will be a bit below the 4% rate expected by the MPC...
- ...The MPC's food and energy price assumptions are too high, while goods inflation will fall swiftly next year.
- Employee numbers have rebounded since the spring, but total employment is lagging behind.
- Vacancies are high, but are concentrated in different sectors to those which will see post-furlough layoffs.
- High inflation and 4-to-5% unemployment didn't lift wage growth in 2017, and probably won't this time.
- In one line: Recent employment gains likely will be reversed when the furlough scheme ends.
- CPI inflation probably declined to 2.1% in July from 2.5% in June, below the consensus, 2.3%.
- Clothing prices appear to have fallen sharply, as usual; they dropped only marginally a year ago.
- Surveys suggest the pace of increases in catering services prices has slowed down.