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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Retail sales volumes continued to decline in May in response to rapidly rising prices.
Consumer confidence deteriorated further in June, but retail sales should start to recover slowly soon...
Real disposable incomes will rise in Q3, thanks to Mr. Sunak’s grants; dis-saving and borrowing will help too.
The fall in May’s composite PMI to a 15-month low is a clear sign that growth is faltering as real incomes drop.
Retail and car sales also have been weak; we expect a quarter-over-quarter drop in GDP in Q2 of about 0.5%.
May’s PMI makes it more likely the MPC will hike by just 25bp this month; markets' expectations are too high.
The additional fiscal support means we expect a smaller 1.5% fall in real incomes in 2022, compared to 2.5%.
We have revised up our forecast for GDP in Q3 and Q4 as a result; but a recession still cannot be ruled out.
We now expect Bank Rate to top out at 1.50% this year, but we still think markets' expectations are wild.
Households still were unwilling to use their excess savings in April, despite the sharp drop in real incomes.
With excess savings equal to £186B and consumer credit £23B below its peak, consumers still can spend.
But low confidence, the unequal distribution of savings and falling incomes suggests expenditure will dip in Q2.
The £15B support package is hefty, timely and targeted; it offsets most of October’s £24B energy bill rise.
The extra cash likely will lift GDP by 0.7% in the second half of this year; this matters for monetary policy.
Strikes will become more common over the coming months, but won’t tip the balance towards recession.
People are more likely to drain savings when they are glum due to inflation than when they fear redundancy.
April's recovery in retail sales suggests that households are prepared to defend their current real spending.
Recession risks likely will be further minimised by extra support from the government in the autumn.
The boost to activity from the removal of final Covid restrictions likely was offset by falling health sector output.
Higher energy prices and fresh supply chain frictions, following the war in Ukraine, likely hit manufacturing.
Retail sales and car sales fell, while the recovery in the hospitality sector appears to have topped out.
Households must save less—or borrow more—to the tune of £9B in Q2, in order for real spending not to fall.
That is possible, given that "excess savings" are £186B and consumer credit is £25B below its peak.
But people didn't draw on savings in March and still are reluctant to borrow, so GDP looks set to dip in Q2.
The composite PMI points to solid quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 0.7% in Q2, despite falling in April.
The PMI, however, likely is too upbeat; it excludes government expenditure and retail sales, which are falling.
It might also be too strong when turnover is being lifted by price rises; we still expect GDP to drop in Q2.
Firms want to hold more stocks than in the 2010s, but now are accumulating them at a slower pace.
GDP growth depends on the rate of change in inventories, so the deceleration will depress growth.
Futures prices historically have been a better guide to energy prices than assuming they don't change.
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