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- The 0.6% m/m rise in payroll employee numbers in October implies unemployment didn't rise post-furlough...
- ...But the drop in median pay in October suggests many furloughed staff have returned only part-time.
- Year-over-year growth in wages continued to slow in September; no sign of a wage-price spiral forming.
- Payroll employee numbers likely increased again in October, but not quite as strongly as in Q3.
- The data, however, will not gauge underemployment; October's LFS data, released in December, remain key.
- The recent drop in Covid-19 cases has largely been driven by school holidays; expect a renewed rise soon.
- The labour market continued to tighten in Q3, but employment and hours still were below their potential.
- Labour supply likely has increased much more than labour demand in Q4, now that the CJRS has ended.
- Unit wage costs were kept in check by a productivity rebound; rising labour supply will cool wage growth in Q4.
- Markets see a 50% chance of the MPC hiking Bank Rate next month; December viewed as a done deal.
- November still seems too early; the MPC saw "a high option value" in waiting for post-furlough jobs data.
- Inflation expectations exceed the rate implied by current inflation, but this residual isn't a reliable wage signal.
- Payroll employee numbers returned in August to their pre-Covid peak, but will dip in Q4, after furlough ends.
- We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; slack within firms will build too.
- Three-month-on-three-month annualised growth in wages fell to 3.2% in July; slack will keep it in check.
- Employee numbers have rebounded since the spring, but total employment is lagging behind.
- Vacancies are high, but are concentrated in different sectors to those which will see post-furlough layoffs.
- High inflation and 4-to-5% unemployment didn't lift wage growth in 2017, and probably won't this time.
Next week's labour market report—released during our summer break—likely will show that employment is growing respectably, rather than spectacularly.
Tuesday's labour market report looks set to show that the unemployment rate fell further in April, though not quite as rapidly as implied by recent business surveys.
The labour market defied its past tendency to lag developments in the wider economy in Q1.