Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

payroll

17 Nov 2021 Relief on Unemployment, but Still No Clarity on Wider Labour Market Slack

  • The 0.6% m/m rise in payroll employee numbers in October implies unemployment didn't rise post-furlough...
  • ...But the drop in median pay in October suggests many furloughed staff have returned only part-time.
  • Year-over-year growth in wages continued to slow in September; no sign of a wage-price spiral forming.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Nov 2021 October Payroll Employee Data to Help Gauge Furlough Scheme Fallout

  • Payroll employee numbers likely increased again in October, but not quite as strongly as in Q3.
  • The data, however, will not gauge underemployment; October's LFS data, released in December, remain key.
  • The recent drop in Covid-19 cases has largely been driven by school holidays; expect a renewed rise soon.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

13 Oct 2021 Solid Q3 Labour Data Won't Suffice for the MPC to Pull the Trigger

  • The labour market continued to tighten in Q3, but employment and hours still were below their potential.
  • Labour supply likely has increased much more than labour demand in Q4, now that the CJRS has ended.
  • Unit wage costs were kept in check by a productivity rebound; rising labour supply will cool wage growth in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Oct 2021 How Much Weight will the MPC Place on Inflation Expectations?

  • Markets see a 50% chance of the MPC hiking Bank Rate next month; December viewed as a done deal.
  • November still seems too early; the MPC saw "a high option value" in waiting for post-furlough jobs data.
  • Inflation expectations exceed the rate implied by current inflation, but this residual isn't a reliable wage signal.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Sept 2021 Wages Likely Won't Match Inflation as Slack Builds Post-Furlough

  • Payroll employee numbers returned in August to their pre-Covid peak, but will dip in Q4, after furlough ends.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; slack within firms will build too.
  • Three-month-on-three-month annualised growth in wages fell to 3.2% in July; slack will keep it in check.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Aug 2021 Employment has Risen Briskly, but will Fall Back when Furlough Ends

  • Employee numbers have rebounded since the spring, but total employment is lagging behind.
  • Vacancies are high, but are concentrated in different sectors to those which will see post-furlough layoffs.
  • High inflation and 4-to-5% unemployment didn't lift wage growth in 2017, and probably won't this time.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 July 2021 Employment Likely isn't Rising as Quickly as Business Surveys Imply

Next week's labour market report—released during our summer break—likely will show that employment is growing respectably, rather than spectacularly. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 June 2021 A Blockbuster Labour Market Report for April?

Tuesday's labour market report looks set to show that the unemployment rate fell further in April, though not quite as rapidly as implied by recent business surveys.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 May 2021 Labour Market Slack will Remain Ample Enough to Restrain Wages

The labour market defied its past tendency to lag developments in the wider economy in Q1.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence