Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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9 Feb 2021 Higher Commodity Prices will Send CPI Inflation Briefly Above 2%

Higher Commodity Prices will Send CPI Inflation Briefly Above 2%

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

15 Jan 2021 How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

How Severe are the Disruptions at the Border?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

13 Jan 2021 November GDP to Reveal Economy's Adaptability to Lockdown Conditions

November GDP to Reveal Economy's Adaptability to Lockdown Conditions

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Jan 2021 13:00U.K.

11 Dec 2020 GDP won't Return to October's Level until March

October's GDP figures conformed to our expectation that the recovery hit a wall as the second wave of Covid-19 developed.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

7 Dec 2020 GDP Likely Held Steady in October, as the Second Wave Advanced

We expect October's GDP report, released on Thursday, to show that month-to-month growth slowed to about zero, from 1.1% in September, as consumers retreated to their homes as...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)6th Dec 2020 19:10U.K.

2 Dec 2020 The Downturn in Retail Sector Employment is Only Beginning

The collapse this week of Arcadia and Debenhams--two high-street stalwarts who together employ 25K people--marks the start of a painful shake-out of employment in the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

23 Nov 2020 New OBR Forecasts to Shed Light on Scale of Future Fiscal Tightening

The run of lower-than-expected, though still high, public borrowing continued in October, with "PSNB ex." coming in at £22.3B, well below the £28.7B anticipated by the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

16 Nov 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Rose in October, But it's too Soon to Call an Uptrend

We see slight upside risk to the consensus and MPC forecasts that CPI inflation remained at 0.5% in October. We think it nudged up to 0.6%, though admittedly a 0.5% print looks...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

10 Nov 2020 GDP Likely Grew Slowly in September, but the Consensus is too Downbeat

September's GDP report, released on Thursday, looks set to show the economic recovery ended Q3 with little momentum.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Nov 2020 17:20U.K.

4 Nov 2020 Manufacturing will be a Bright Spot Through the Bleak Winter

Equity markets are correctly concluding that the outlook for U.K.-listed manufacturers is brighter than for most other firms.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Nov 2020 13:00U.K.

5 Oct 2020 August GDP Will Prompt the MPC to Reappraise the Recovery's Strength

August's GDP report, released on Friday, looks set to reinforce the downward pressure on gilt yields by making it even more likely that the MPC will extend its QE programme...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Oct 2020 20:10U.K.

2 Oct 2020 Why Haven't Core Consumer Goods Prices Fallen Yet?

Higher core goods inflation is one of the main reasons why the headline rate of CPI inflation has exceeded economists' forecasts over the last few months.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Oct 2020 14:00U.K.

17 Sept 2020 Inflation to Stay Below 1%, Despite Little Impact from the VAT Cut

CPI inflation fell to 0.2% in August, from 1.0% in July, but exceeded our forecast and the consensus, both zero.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

14 Sept 2020 The Recovery in GDP will Continue to Decelerate Through the Autumn

GDP data for July, released on Friday, showed that the economic recovery following the Covid-19 lockdown still does not look V-shaped, even though virtually all restrictions on...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Sep 2020 20:10U.K.

9 Sept 2020 A 2% Uplift to the CPI Looms, Without an E.U. Trade Deal

After three years, we think the level of the CPI would be about 2% higher if the U.K. falls back on WTO terms for trade with the E .U. than if a deep Free Trade Agreement is...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

8 Sept 2020 July GDP to Show V-Shaped Recovery Remains Elusive

We expect July's GDP report, released on Friday, to show that overall output rose by about 7.0% month-to-month, bringing it to 11.5% below its pre-Covid peak.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

20 Aug 2020 July's Jump in CPI Inflation won't be Sustained

The jump in CPI inflation to 1.0% in July, from 0.6% in June, caught all analysts by surprise.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

17 Aug 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Edged Up in July, Before Turning Negative in August

We expect July's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation ticked up to 0.7% in July, from 0.6% in June.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Aug 2020 20:10U.K.

13 Aug 2020 The Fastest Part of the Recovery in GDP Already Lies in the Past

The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

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