Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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6 July 2020 How Would the BoE Reduce its Balance Sheet, if the Need Arose?

Governor Bailey signalled a potential shift in the Bank of England's approach to withdrawing monetary stimulus--whenever the time comes--last month in an article for...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Jul 2020 20:10U.K.

20 Mar 2020 Unprecedented QE Should Arrest the Surge in Gilt Yields

The MPC has wasted no time in seeking to counter this week's undesirable pick-up in gilt yields, which reflects investors dumping assets for cash.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Mar 2020 14:00U.K.

13 Mar 2020 Market Meltdown Makes Further MPC Easing Likely on March 26

The measures to support the economy through the coronavirus crisis, unveiled by policymakers on Budget day, exceeded expectations.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Mar 2020 14:00U.K.

5 Mar 2020 Will the MPC Cut Rates Before its Late March Meeting?

Speculation mounted yesterday that the MPC will follow the U.S. Fed and cut interest rates before its next meeting on March 26.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Mar 2020 13:10U.K.

2 Mar 2020 Will the BoE be Swept Along in the Global Rush to Ease?

Investors moved rapidly last week to price-in renewed easing by central banks around the world, in response to the rapid growth in coronavirus cases outside China and the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Mar 2020 19:10U.K.

14 Feb 2020 Javid's Resignation Opens the Door to Bolder Fiscal Stimulus

Chancellor Javid's resignation, only eight months after assuming the role, is the clearest sign yet that the Johnson-led government wants fiscal policy to play a bigger part...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Feb 2020 13:10U.K.

13 Feb 2020 Could Inventory Rundowns Scupper the Q1 GDP Pick-up?

Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth last year was buffeted by the accumulation, and subsequent depletion, of inventories, around the two Brexit deadlines in March and October.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Feb 2020 13:00U.K.

12 Feb 2020 GDP Data Highlight Scope for a Consumer-led Rebound in Q1

The latest GDP data confirm that the economy ended last year on a very weak note.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Feb 2020 13:10U.K.

11 Feb 2020 What's Happened to the Wage- Price Link?

At first glance, the continued weakness of domestically-generated inflation, despite punchy increases in labour costs, is puzzling.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Feb 2020 13:10U.K.

10 Feb 2020 December GDP Set to Confirm that the Economy Stagnated in Q4

We can't quibble with the consensus that GDP likely rose by 0.2% month-to-month in December, reversing only two-thirds of November's drop.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Feb 2020 19:10U.K.

27 Jan 2020 The PMI Rebound Should Suffice for the MPC to Stand its Ground

The recovery in the composite PMI to 52.4 in January, from 49.3 in December, should convince a majority of MPC members to vote on Thursday to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75%.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)26th Jan 2020 19:10U.K.

15 Jan 2020 Will the Composite PMI Rise Enough to Keep the MPC on Hold?

Members of the Monetary Policy Committee have signalled that January's flash Markit/CIPS composite PMI, released on Friday 24, will have a major bearing on their policy...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

10 Jan 2020 Carney's Rate Cut Meditation Indicates Normalisation is Distant

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate in the first half of this year leapt to 50% yesterday, from 35%, following Mark Carney's speech.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

9 Jan 2020 Higher Investment Alone won't Solve the U.K.'s Productivity Problem

Productivity statistics released yesterday continued to paint a bleak picture. Output per worker rose by a mere 0.1% year-over-year in Q3, despite jumping by 0.6%...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Jan 2020 13:00U.K.

8 Jan 2020 Higher Oil Prices won't Stop the Economy Recovering this Year

The $10 increase in the price of Brent crude oil over the last three months to $68 is an unhelpful, but manageable, drag on the U.K. economy's growth prospects this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Jan 2020 13:10U.K.

11 Nov 2019 Sharp Fall in CPI Inflation in October to Underline Below-Target Outlook

October's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation has continued to drift further below the 2% target

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Nov 2019 19:10U.K.

11 Oct 2019 Q3 GDP Set to Grow at Double the Rate Anticipated by the MPC

The latest GDP data continue to show that the economy is holding up well, despite the Brexit saga.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Oct 2019 14:10U.K.

20 Sept 2019 A Pre-Brexit Rate Cut Now is on the Table, But Remains Unlikely

It was widely assumed that the MPC simply would regurgitate its key messages from August in the minutes of September's meeting, released yesterday alongside its unanimous...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Sep 2019 14:00U.K.

16 Sept 2019 The MPC Is Under No Pressure to Change its Tune

We look for yet another unanimous vote by the MPC to keep Bank Rate at 0.75% on Thursday, with no new guidance on the near-term outlook.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Sep 2019 20:10U.K.

12 Aug 2019 Q2's GDP Drop is an Inventory-Driven Blip, Growth will Spring Back in Q3

Q2's GDP figures create a terrible first impression, but a closer look suggests that the risk of a recession remains very low.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Aug 2019 20:10U.K.

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