Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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household spending

22 Feb 2021 How Strong will the Eventual Rebound in Retail Sales Be?

How Strong will the Eventual Rebound in Retail Sales Be?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Feb 2021 18:00U.K.

5 Feb 2021 Negative Rates to be Implementable by August, but Undesirable

Negative Rates to be Implementable by August, but Undesirable

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Feb 2021 12:00U.K.

21 Jan 2021 Core Inflation Likely Will Remain Below 2% Throughout 2021

The pick-up in the headline rate of CPI inflation to 0.6% in December, from 0.3% in November, simply reflects it reverting to its trend rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Jan 2021 12:00U.K.

20 Jan 2021 December Retail Sales Failed to Recover Much after the Lockdown

December Retail Sales Failed to Recover Much after the Lockdown

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Jan 2021 12:00U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Spending Review 2020

In one line: The medium-term fiscal consolidation likely will need to be bigger than the OBR's forecasts currently imply.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Nov 2020 10:19U.K.

23 Nov 2020 New OBR Forecasts to Shed Light on Scale of Future Fiscal Tightening

The run of lower-than-expected, though still high, public borrowing continued in October, with "PSNB ex." coming in at £22.3B, well below the £28.7B anticipated by the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Nov 2020 18:10U.K.

18 Nov 2020 Retail Sales Likely Edged Down in October, But a New Peak Lies Ahead

The consensus for a mere 0.3% month-to-month fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes--the data are released on Friday--looks too sanguine. We look for a fall...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Nov 2020 12:10U.K.

13 Nov 2020 GDP Likely won't Return to September's Level Until the Spring

The economic recovery slowed to a snail's pace in September, with GDP merely rising by 1.1% on a month-to-month basis and languishing 8.6% below its January 2020 peak, even...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Nov 2020 12:00U.K.

1 Oct 2020 Households Likely will Sit On Most of their Excess Savings, for Now

The small upward revision to the level of GDP in Q2 has done little to lift the U .K. economy's recent performance into line with its international peers.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Sep 2020 13:00U.K.

21 Sept 2020 August will Prove to Be the High Water Mark for Retail Sales

Retailers made hay while the sun shone in August, but clouds now are looming overhead. The 0.8% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes took them 3.3% above last year's...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Sep 2020 19:10U.K.

20 Aug 2020 July's Jump in CPI Inflation won't be Sustained

The jump in CPI inflation to 1.0% in July, from 0.6% in June, caught all analysts by surprise.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Aug 2020 13:10U.K.

19 Aug 2020 The U.K.'s Underperformance is Not a Statistical Mirage

The Covid-19 downturn has been more severe in the U.K. than in most other advanced economies this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Aug 2020 13:00U.K.

13 Aug 2020 The Fastest Part of the Recovery in GDP Already Lies in the Past

The U.K. economy underperformed its peers to an extraordinary degree in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Aug 2020 13:10U.K.

27 July 2020 Don't Be Fooled by Temporary Strength in Retail Sales

June's surge in retail sales is not a sign that households' total spending is zipping back to pre- downturn levels.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)26th Jul 2020 19:10U.K.

20 July 2020 Which High Frequency Indicators Truly Add Value?

High frequency data are all the rage, given the speed and severity of the Covid-19 shock. GDP data are published with a lag of about six weeks, too long for investors to wait.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Jul 2020 19:10U.K.

1 July 2020 Q1 GDP Weaker than First Thought, Amid Rapid Consumer Retrenchment

Yesterday's national accounts showed that the downturn in the economy on the eve of the Covid-19 outbreak was sharper than first estimated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Jun 2020 13:00U.K.

22 June 2020 Retail Sales will be a Poor Bellwether for Households' Overall Spending

We advise strongly against concluding from the above-consensus rebound in retail sales in May that the economy is embarking on a healthy, V-shaped recovery, from Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Jun 2020 19:10U.K.

9 June 2020 Assessing the Magnitude of April's Collapse in GDP

April's GDP report probably will be the worst any of us will see in our lifetime.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Jun 2020 13:10U.K.

3 June 2020 Cash Injections Have Contained Corporate Insolvencies, For Now

April's money and credit figures show that relatively few firms suffered from a lack of liquidity at the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Jun 2020 13:10U.K.

22 May 2020 GDP Likely Has Started to Recover, Despite Still-Gloomy Surveys

We're placing less weight than usual on conventional business surveys at the moment, as they are ill-suited to charting the economy's turnaround from the Covid-19 slump.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st May 2020 13:10U.K.

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