Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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7 Sept 2021 July GDP to Undershoot the Consensus with a No-Change Print

  • GDP likely held steady in July, falling short of the consensus and the level implied by the BoE's Q3 forecast.
  • Surging Covid cases depressed output in the distribution, food services and education sectors.
  • A decline in new Covid-19 vaccinations probably led to a reduction in output in the health sector too. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Aug 2021 The Run of Robust Month-to-month Gains in GDP Likely Ended in July

The U.K. economy was the G7's straggler for a fifth consecutive quarter, despite the rebound in Q2.
GDP will barely rise in July; June's surges in output in the health and advertising sector will reverse...
...while data from OpenTable and the BRC point to a step down in consumers' spending last month.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 June 2021 Public Borrowing Won't Reach Sustainable Levels Without Tax Rises

May’s public finance figures haven’t caused us to alter our view that the government will have to press ahead with the tax rises set out in the March Budget in order to reduce public borrowing to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 May 2021 May's Further Reopening Will Not Stoke a Troublesome Virus Wave

Confirmed cases of Covid-19 have stopped falling. Indeed, the seven-day rolling total of confirmed cases on May 17 was 10% above its low on May 5.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 May 2021 The U.K. Likely was the G7's Laggard for the Last Time in Q1

The U.K. economy almost certainly was the worst performer in the G7 for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q1.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Apr 2021 First Dosing will be Complete by Early July, Despite April's Slowdown

Earlier this week, the U.K. government trumpeted that it had hit its April 15 target of offering a Covid-19 vaccine to all adults aged 50 or over, and to people with serious underlying health conditions, three days ahead of schedule.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Apr 2021 The Economy Continued to Hibernate in February, But will Wake Up Soon

February’s GDP report unsurprisingly showed that economic activity remained greatly depressed by lockdown rules.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Apr 2021 GDP Likely Edged Up in February, Despite Unchanged Lockdown Rules

We expect February's GDP report, released on Tuesday, to show that output increased by about 0.8% month-to-month, reversing just under a third of January's 2.9% decline.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Mar 2021 GDP is Rebounding, Despite Little Change in Lockdown Rules

The green shoots of a sustainable recovery in economic activity are starting to sprout, even though lockdown rules have not eased materially this month.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Mar 2021 GDP is Receiving a Shot in the Arm from Rising Healthcare Spending

The 2.9% month-to-month drop in GDP in
January was smaller than our 4.0% forecast and
the consensus, 4.9%. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Mar 2021 January GDP Likely was Less Dreadful than the Consensus Expects

We expect January's GDP report, released on Friday, to reveal that output fell by about 4.0% month-to-month, less than the 4.9% consensus.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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