- Households' stock of excess savings rose in July to 8.3% of 2020 GDP, after another cautious month.
- The proportion of credit card debt repaid rose to a record high; ad hoc mortgage payments were high too.
- Businesses aren't borrowing either, though capex still looks set to recover from rock-bottom levels in 2022.
The U.K. economy was the G7's straggler for a fifth consecutive quarter, despite the rebound in Q2.
GDP will barely rise in July; June's surges in output in the health and advertising sector will reverse...
...while data from OpenTable and the BRC point to a step down in consumers' spending last month.
Car demand surged in Q2, as easing Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumers' confidence.
But shortages of key components have limited the supply of new cars; used car sales have surged.
Used car sales look set to remain elevated this year, pushing up prices.
By the autumn, vaccination rates no longer will be higher in the U.K. than other advanced economies.
The chances of U.S. and U.K. rates rising in lockstep are remote; the U.S. recovery is far more advanced.
U.K. political risks are low now, but next year investors will start to weigh the risks from the 2024 election.
Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.
The MPC's forecasts imply markets' expectations for future rate hikes are about right...
...But the risks to the MPC's economic forecasts now are skewed firmly to the downside.
We now expect the first rate hike in Q2 2023, slightly earlier than before, with QE wind-down coming later.
Now that negative rates are in the toolkit, the MPC might divulge its new estimate for the lower bound.
The MPC also might lower the threshold that Bank Rate must reach before it starts to wind down QE.
We expect Ofgem to announce on Friday that the default tariff cap will rise by a painful 13.5% in Q4.
The proportion of staff furloughed fell to 5.7% at the end of June, from 7.5% a month earlier...
...But surveys point to only a marginal fall in early July, and still high usage in fully recovered sectors.
Firms likely won't fully relinquish recent productivity gains; the employment rate will drop back in Q4.
The recovery in the manufacturing sector slowed in July, probably to a complete standstill.
Output should pick up in the autumn, amid easing supply constraints and robust restocking demand...
...But we see little chance of long-term reshoring; Brexit is another barrier to a sustained recovery.
The ONS' Business Impact of Covid-19 survey suggests business turnover has flatlined since late May.
The disruption caused by the "pingdemic" wors- ened in late July, but likely is now starting to fade.
Unemployment still looks set to jump in Q4, despite another hefty drop in furlough scheme usage in June
The story of the U.K. economy's underperformance relative to its international peers remains intact after the Q1 national accounts.
Recent indicators of economic activity are not as uniformly positive as we hoped.
April's money and credit data suggest that the economic recovery is progressing, but not at a stellar rate.
The manufacturing sector currently is enjoying a remarkably strong recovery.
Financial markets are relatively upbeat on the outlook for British retailers. The FTSE All-Share Retailers Index closed last week 27% above its 2019 average, greatly outperforming the total FTSE All- Share Index, which has only just recovered to its 2019 level.