Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- GDP surpassed its pre-Covid level in November, albeit with support from some unsustainable sources.
- Omicron has temporarily set the economy back, but GDP should return to November's level by March.
- Thereafter, however, GDP growth likely will be slow, due to the squeeze on households' disposable incomes.
- Near-real-time indicators are broadly consistent with our forecast that GDP fell by 0.6% m/m in December.
- OpenTable/CHAPS data signal weak pre-Christmas trading for hospitality; transport usage dipped too.
- Omicron cases, however, should fall substantially by February, enabling GDP to begin rising again.
- Consumer caution in response to Omicron points to a near-1% fall in GDP between November and January.
- Surging energy prices have forced us to revise up our forecast for this year's peak rate of CPI inflation to 6.0%.
- The MPC, however, likely will wait until March to hike rates again, given the large hit to activity from Omicron
- The Economy Needs Breathing Space To Get Over Omicron....The MPC Likely Will Wait Until May To Hike Bank Rates Again
- Omicron cases have leapt, but little still is known about the hospitalisation rate; new curbs aren't inevitable.
- Even with no new restrictions and low Omicron severity, GDP likely will be 1% lower in January than in November.
- Expect a 2% hit to GDP from a return to "Step Two" rules, and a 6% hit if a full lockdown is imposed.
Markets now expect the MPC to hike Bank Rate to 0.50% in February, following today's surprise hike.
Most members, however, thought the decision was "finely balanced" and see a "modest" tightening ahead.
Omicron won't just have short-term effects if the MPC hikes again and pushes firms over the edge.
- October's mere 0.1% m/m increase in GDP shows the recovery had little momentum before Omicron.
- GDP was near its pre-Covid level only due to surging health activities; private sector GDP was 2.4% adrift.
- A pullback in consumer services spending will depress GDP over the winter; no rate hike before March.
- The MPC likely will hold back from raising Bank Rate next week, despite several upside data surprises.
- We are cutting our forecast for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.3%, from 0.8%, due to Omicron.
- The Covid situation won't be better in early February; the March meeting is a better bet for the first rate hike.
- The MPC would ease monetary policy again in the unlikely event that another lockdown is imposed.
- Fiscal policy would be less supportive than in previous lockdowns; new curbs would dampen inflation.
- Negative rates are in the toolkit and are preferred to more QE; Bank Rate likely would be cut to -0.25%.
- The recent measures implemented by the government will have limited direct impact on the economy...
- ...But near-real-time data already show consumers are pulling back a bit in response to the new variant.
- A "lockdown lite" set of restrictions could subtract 1.5% from Q1 GDP; expect a 6% hit with a full lockdown.
- Recent activity data have surprised to the upside, but the Omicron variant casts a shadow over Q1.
- The near-term path for inflation looks much higher than a month ago, after October's above-consensus data.
- The MPC likely will hike Bank Rate in December, but markets' expected 2022 rate path looks far too steep.
- A December Rate Hike Now Looks Likely...But The 2022 Rate Path Antipicated By Markets Is Too Steep
- The Conservatives' poll lead has virtually disappeared; we doubt it will re-emerge next year.
- Higher inflation and rising interest rates will keep consumers' confidence weak.
- A hung parliament would bring to the fore Brexit and Scottish independence risks again, weakening sterling.
- The Chancellor spent only about half of the windfall stemming from the OBR's rosier economic forecasts...
- ...In order to build scope to cut taxes before the next election, while still meeting his new fiscal targets.
- The OBR's new GDP forecasts are too upbeat, while its debt interest forecast is too low, but this won't matter.
- The MPC Can Hike Gradually, Given The Slowing Recovery....And Continued Weakness In Domestically-Generated Inflation
- August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
- Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
- We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.
- Markets see a 50% chance of the MPC hiking Bank Rate next month; December viewed as a done deal.
- November still seems too early; the MPC saw "a high option value" in waiting for post-furlough jobs data.
- Inflation expectations exceed the rate implied by current inflation, but this residual isn't a reliable wage signal.
- We have lowered our forecast for Q4 GDP, due to the impaired supply of fuel and industrial inputs.
- Surging energy prices have forced us to hike our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.4%, from 2.5%.
- We now expect the Committee to hike Bank Rate in Q2 2022, but we don't buy investors' hawkish view.
- Panic-buying of fuel likely will fade soon; no sign yet of shortage fears spreading to food or other goods...
- ...But for a period, people likely will reduce trips to purchase non-essential goods and services.
- The silver lining, however, has been a softening of the government's visa policies; probably more to come.
- The fall in the composite PMI in September chimes with other data suggesting growth was sluggish in Q3.
- Survey data also suggest the number of furloughed workers has fallen only marginally in recent weeks.
- GDP growth will disappoint the BoE's expectations in Q3 and Q4, making a rate hike in Q1 2022 unlikely.