Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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22 Jan 2021 The Housing Market Is Starting to Come Off the Boil

We're starting to see signs that the mini-bubble in the housing market is deflating, albeit slowly.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Jan 2021 13:10U.K.

5 Jan 2021 Housing Market Activity will Plunge in Q2, without Government Support

Housing Market Activity will Plunge in Q2, without Government Support

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Dec 2020 07:34U.K.

8 Dec 2020 A Brexit Trade Deal Remains the Path of Least Resistance for the PM

Markets have become more nervous about the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, following the absence of a breakthrough in negotiations over the weekend.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

3 Nov 2020 Covid will be Too Prevalent in December to Return to October's Lax Rules

It is highly unlikely that Britain will be able to return at the start of December to the light-touch restrictions that failed meaningfully to curb the transmission of Covid-19...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

29 Sept 2020 No-Deal Is a Risk Too Great for the Conservatives

Sterling yesterday clawed back some of the ground it lost earlier this month, when the government put forward the controversial Internal Markets Bill.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

21 Aug 2020 Sterling Likely to Give Back Recent Gains as the Brexit Deadline Looms

Sterling has recovered virtually all of the ground it lost against the U.S. dollar in the spring, rising to $1.31 in recent days, from just $1.26 a month ago and a low of $1.15 in...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

29 May 2020 The Government will Blink on Brexit, Though Not Until the Last Minute

For now, the U.K. government still insists that the Brexit transition period will end in December, regardless of whether a new trade deal has been negotiated with the E.U. or not.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th May 2020 14:10U.K.

2 Apr 2020 How Long Before the Government Lifts the Lockdown?

The duration and future scope of the current lockdown is the main uncertainty that U.K economic forecasters have to grapple with at present.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Apr 2020 14:10U.K.

12 Mar 2020 Fiscal Policy Levers Pulled Aggressively, Limiting Recession Risk

Chancellor Sunak's "temporary, timely and targeted" fiscal response to the Covid-19 outbreak, and the BoE's accompanying stimulus measures, won't prevent...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Mar 2020 14:00U.K.

27 Feb 2020 Treat Surveys Pointing to Stronger Growth in Capex With Scepticism

The stagnation in business investment since 2016 has been key to the slowdown in the overall economy since the E.U. referendum.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)26th Feb 2020 13:10U.K.

17 Dec 2019 The MPC won't Dwell on December's Weak Flash PMIs

On the face of it, December's flash Markit/CIPS PMIs warrant the MPC cutting Bank Rate at its meeting on Thursday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

12 Dec 2019 A Guide to the Drama on Election Night

Today's general election looks set to be a closer race than opinion polls suggested two weeks ago.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

10 Dec 2019 A Conservative Majority Remains Likely, But it is Not Se t in Stone

The Conservatives successfully have defended their average poll lead over Labour of 10 percentage points over the last week.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

5 Dec 2019 Would the Conservatives Really Run a Tight Fiscal Ship?

Over the summer, both Chancellor Javid and PM Johnson appeared to be repositioning the Conservatives, claiming that the era of austerity was over and that higher levels of...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

4 Dec 2019 Better Times Lie Ahead for the Construction Sector

2019 is a year many in the construction sector would prefer to forget.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

3 Dec 2019 Can Labour Continue to Reduce the Tories' Poll Lead?

The political momentum in the run-up to the election now lies with Labour.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Dec 2019 13:10U.K.

2 Dec 2019 Don't Take Your Eye off the Improving Monetary Indicators

With campaigning for the general election intensifying last week, it was unsurprising that October's money and credit release from the Bank of England received virtually no...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Dec 2019 19:10U.K.

29 Nov 2019 The Recovery in Sentiment Will Be Fleeting, if the Tories' Majority is Small

The emergence last month of a new E.U. Withdrawal Agreement that has a strong chance of being ratified by MPs appears to have given a small boost to business confidence.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Nov 2019 13:10U.K.

28 Nov 2019 Record Registrations Hint the Youth Vote Will Surprise to the Upside Again

The deadline for registering to vote in the general election passed on Tuesday, with a record 660K people registering on the final day.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)27th Nov 2019 13:10U.K.

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