Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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budget

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

3 Mar 2021 The New Financing Remit Should Becalm the Gilt Market

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Mar 2021 13:00U.K.

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

25 Feb 2021 The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

The Chancellor Will Duck Major Fiscal Decisions in Next Week's Budget

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

24 Feb 2021 Job Cuts and Slowing Wage Growth will Temper the Consumer Rebound

24 Feb 2021 Job Cuts and Slowing Wage Growth will Temper the Consumer Rebound

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

22 Feb 2021 How Strong will the Eventual Rebound in Retail Sales Be?

How Strong will the Eventual Rebound in Retail Sales Be?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

25 Jan 2021 Public Borrowing Set to Hit £400B this Year, Despite Recent Trends

The public finances are in worse shape than the latest borrowing numbers indicate. For now, the ONS estimates that borrowing on the main "PSNB ex."

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Jan 2021 19:00U.K.

22 Jan 2021 The Housing Market Is Starting to Come Off the Boil

We're starting to see signs that the mini-bubble in the housing market is deflating, albeit slowly.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Jan 2021 13:10U.K.

23 Nov 2020 New OBR Forecasts to Shed Light on Scale of Future Fiscal Tightening

The run of lower-than-expected, though still high, public borrowing continued in October, with "PSNB ex." coming in at £22.3B, well below the £28.7B anticipated by the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

16 Sept 2020 The Upturn in Redundancies is Only Just Getting Going

The latest official data continue to understate the collapse in labour demand since Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

22 July 2020 Rising Covid-19 Cases Suggest the Reopening Has Gone too Far

Complacency and wishful thinking seem to be creeping back into the government's approach to containing Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Jul 2020 14:10U.K.

1 July 2020 Q1 GDP Weaker than First Thought, Amid Rapid Consumer Retrenchment

Yesterday's national accounts showed that the downturn in the economy on the eve of the Covid-19 outbreak was sharper than first estimated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Jun 2020 14:00U.K.

8 June 2020 Will the MPC Swap Its QE Machine Gun for a Bazooka?

So far, the MPC has been more timid with unconventional stimulus than other central banks. At the end of May, central bank reserves equalled 29.7% of four-quarter rolling GDP in...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Jun 2020 20:10U.K.

26 May 2020 High Gilt Issuance no Sweat for Investors, for the Time Being

A decade of public deficit reduction was fully reversed in April, as the coronavirus tore through the economy.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th May 2020 20:10U.K.

21 May 2020 Zero CPI Inflation Still Likely by the Summer, Following April's Big Fall

CPI inflation took a big step in April towards the near-zero rate we anticipate by the summer.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th May 2020 14:00U.K.

5 May 2020 Money Data Highlight Bounce-back Potential Once the Virus Ends

The surge in the broad money supply in March, as the U.K.'s lockdown began, suggests that businesses are in relatively good shape to survive a multi-month period of greatly...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)4th May 2020 14:10U.K.

15 Apr 2020 An Advance Guide to Next Week's Data, They'll Be Grim

The U.K. Monitor will be on a short break soon for paternity leave, so we are taking this opportunity to preview next week's data releases.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Apr 2020 14:10U.K.

30 Mar 2020 Should Holders of Gilts Fear the Impending Surge in Issuance?

The economic downturn and the Chancellor's unprecedented fiscal measures mean that public borrowing likely will be about four times higher, in the forthcoming fiscal year,...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Mar 2020 20:10U.K.

13 Mar 2020 Market Meltdown Makes Further MPC Easing Likely on March 26

The measures to support the economy through the coronavirus crisis, unveiled by policymakers on Budget day, exceeded expectations.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Mar 2020 14:00U.K.

12 Mar 2020 Fiscal Policy Levers Pulled Aggressively, Limiting Recession Risk

Chancellor Sunak's "temporary, timely and targeted" fiscal response to the Covid-19 outbreak, and the BoE's accompanying stimulus measures, won't prevent...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Mar 2020 14:00U.K.

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