Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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16 Sept 2021 Higher CPI Inflation Still Due to Only a Few Components

  • The month-to-month rise in the core CPI in August was only 0.1pp bigger than the average in the 2010s.
  • Used cars and computer games drove the large monthly gain; no sign of broad-based price increases.
  • Higher energy prices will push up the headline rate to 4% in Q4 and Q1, but the MPC needn't blink.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Sept 2021 The Consensus for August CPI Inflation Looks too Low

  • We think CPI inflation leapt to 3.1% in August, from 2.0% in July, above the 2.9% consensus.
  • Core inflation likely jumped on the anniversary of the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme...
  • ...But it also probably was boosted by abnormally large increases in used car and other goods prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Sept 2021 The MPC Won't Hike Bank Rate Just After a Big Rise in NICs

  • Markets still expect the MPC to hike rates in Q2 2022, despite surprise plans to lift national insurance in April.
  • The tax hike will defer a full recovery in households' spending to the second half of next year.
  • The plans imply the Treasury does not expect the OBR to turn upbeat on the medium-term economic outlook.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Aug 2021 Labour Shortages will be a Long- Lasting Constraint on GDP

  • Businesses are reporting low inventory in relation to demand, but shops remain well-stocked for now.
  • Labour shortages should fade now that self-isolation rules have eased and the holiday season is nearly over.
  • The workforce, however, is 2.2% below its pre-Covid trend; migration and participation won't fully recover.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Aug 2021 Don't Extrapolate the Recent Favourable Trend in Public Borrowing

  • The margin by which public borrowing undershoots the OBR's forecast will narrow over coming months...
  • ...Interest payments will soar, while GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 will fall short of the OBR's expectations.
  • The OBR's scarring judgement looks sound; productivity and participation have been lower than expected.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 July 2021 Tax Rises Still will be Needed for a 3% Budget Deficit

We continue to think that the government will need to press ahead with its planned fiscal tightening over the next two years, if it wants to ensure that borrowing drops to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 June 2021 Public Borrowing Won't Reach Sustainable Levels Without Tax Rises

May’s public finance figures haven’t caused us to alter our view that the government will have to press ahead with the tax rises set out in the March Budget in order to reduce public borrowing to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 June 2021 Scottish House Price Data Provide a Glimpse of Life after the SDLT Holiday

April's official house price data show how strongly the market has been influenced by the temporary increase in the threshold for Stamp Duty Land Tax to £500K, from £125K.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 May 2021 The Public Finances are Healing, But not as Rapidly as April's Data Imply

The public finances are healing faster than the OBR expected, though April’s figures are not quite as good as they appear at first glance.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 May 2021 Is an Early General Election Likely, Once the FTPA has been Scrapped?

The Government's decision to set out plans in the Queen's Speech to scrap the 2011 Fixed-Term Parliaments Act has fanned speculation that Mr. Johnson wants to hold a general election before May 2024, the date specified by the Act.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 May 2021 The MPC's New Forecasts Signal that Rate Expectations are too High

The MPC made it clear on Thursday that it will not be bounced into raising Bank Rate by the forthcoming period of above-target inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 May 2021 Mortgage Lending to Remain High Through the Summer

The most eye-catching development in the March money and credit release was the surge in gross mortgage lending to a record high of £35.6B, up from £28.2B in February.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 Apr 2021 The MPC Likely will Wait Another Month to Taper its Gilt Purchases

The key question for investors next week is whether the MPC will immediately taper its purchases of government bonds.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 Apr 2021 Will Public Borrowing Continue to Undershoot the OBR's Forecast?

The public finances picked up the strain from Covid-19 last year, but have come through the crisis in better shape than the OBR feared, even as recently as at last month's Budget.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Apr 2021 The Housing Market will be Less Buoyant by Year-End

The mini-boom in the housing market is showing no signs of fizzling out yet.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Mar 2021 The MPC won't Lean Against the Rise in Rate Expectations at this Stage

The big question for investors ahead of Thursday’s MPC meeting is whether the Committee will push back against the recent rise in interest rate expectations in the minutes.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Mar 2021 The Chancellor has Engineered a Soft Landing for the Housing Market

The near-term outlook for the housing market has improved following the Budget.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 Mar 2021 A Swifter Recovery At First, But Constraints to Emerge Next Year

The Chancellor's near-term largesse in the Budget last week makes us more confident in predicting a swift rebound in economic activity in Q2 and Q3. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Mar 2021 The Risks to Public Borrowing Lie to the Upside in the Medium Term

On balance, the risks to the OBR’s new public borrowing forecasts are skewed to the upside. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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