Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

brc

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, August 2021

  • In one line: Rotation, not stagnation, to blame for slower growth in sales.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Aug 2021 The Run of Robust Month-to-month Gains in GDP Likely Ended in July

The U.K. economy was the G7's straggler for a fifth consecutive quarter, despite the rebound in Q2.
GDP will barely rise in July; June's surges in output in the health and advertising sector will reverse...
...while data from OpenTable and the BRC point to a step down in consumers' spending last month.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Aug 2021 Will Car Sales Remain at Q2's Elevated Level?

Car demand surged in Q2, as easing Covid-19 restrictions boosted consumers' confidence.
But shortages of key components have limited the supply of new cars; used car sales have surged.
Used car sales look set to remain elevated this year, pushing up prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Aug 2021 Will Sterling Still be 2021's Best Performing Currency by Year End?

By the autumn, vaccination rates no longer will be higher in the U.K. than other advanced economies.
The chances of U.S. and U.K. rates rising in lockstep are remote; the U.S. recovery is far more advanced.
U.K. political risks are low now, but next year investors will start to weigh the risks from the 2024 election.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, July 2021

In one line: Rising Covid-19 cases temporarily halt the consumer spending recovery.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Aug 2021 Setting out our Base and Reasonable Worst Cases for Covid This Winter

Covid-19 cases likely will pick up in September, as schools return and building ventilation declines.
Business closures in Q4 aren't likely, but households will remain cautious, delaying a full recovery.
In the event of a new variant and lockdown, we think the MPC would cut rates to -0.25%, despite 4% inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 July 2021 Amazon Prime Day Likely Launched Retail Sales to New Heights in June

We're sticking our neck out with our forecast that the official measure of retail sales volumes rose by 1.5% month-to-month in June, thereby narrowly reaching a new record high.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 June 2021 April GDP Shows Q2 Rebound on Track, But Progress will Slow in H2

We’re sticking with our forecast for a 5.3% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in Q2 in the wake of April’s GDP report. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 May 2021 April CPI Inflation to Exceed the Consensus

April's consumer prices figures will be closely watched by markets on Wednesday for signs that prices are surging as businesses reopen, especially in light of the big jump in U.S. CPI inflation reported last week.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 May 2021 The U.K. Likely was the G7's Laggard for the Last Time in Q1

The U.K. economy almost certainly was the worst performer in the G7 for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q1.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 May 2021 Is an Early General Election Likely, Once the FTPA has been Scrapped?

The Government's decision to set out plans in the Queen's Speech to scrap the 2011 Fixed-Term Parliaments Act has fanned speculation that Mr. Johnson wants to hold a general election before May 2024, the date specified by the Act.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, April 2021

In one line: Sales spiked after reopening, though the shift online looks largely permanent.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence