UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Ben Bernanke’s review of BoE forecasting makes detailed modelling recommendations.
- But it gives wide latitude on how to use scenarios and does not recommend publishing a policy rate path.
- Nothing new for markets near term; in the medium term, changes are still open to debate.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Trade deficit little changed in February, but will improve this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: GDP is on track for 0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q1, beating MPC forecasts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We raise our growth forecast, and now expect a 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP gain in Q1.
- Returning growth won’t stop the MPC cutting rates but will keep it to a one-cut-per-quarter pace.
- The MPC switching to scenarios, from fan charts, post Bernanke Review likely matters little to markets.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Building hopes of rate cuts boost buyer demand and house prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- UK interest rates have followed the US in most major cycles since the mid-1970s.
- Exceptions to this when the economies have diverged mean the MPC can cut rates in June as inflation slows.
- The MPC will be cautious about the pace of cuts, given sticky services inflation and to avoid GBP falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 3.0% in March, from 3.4% in February, 0.1pp weaker than the MPC forecast.
- The early-Easter boost probably led to servicesinflation of 5.9%, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
- Services inflation should drop sharply to 5.2% in April as those Easter effects unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Early easter boosts March retail sales, growth will slow in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- ‘Easter-adjusted’ BRC retail sales probably rose 1.2% year-over-year in March, similar to February.
- We expect a 0.3% month-to-month increase in official retail sales volumes in March.
- Retail volumes will continue rising after March as real income increases and relative goods prices fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for PAYE employment to rise by 30K in March and the unemployment rate to stay at 3.9%.
- We expect a 0.3% month-to-month rise in average weekly earnings ex bonuses in February...
- ... Leaving year-over-year wage growth on track to undershoot the MPC’s Q1 forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Report on Jobs survey says it’s time to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expected interest rate cuts prove to be an effective tonic for construction.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth beating the MPC's forecast and services inflation easing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Weak private car sales suggest consumer caution.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth to average 0.3% this year, driven by rising household real income.
- Energy-price cuts will pull inflation below 2% in Q2; sticky services will return inflation above 2% in Q4.
- We expect the MPC gradually to ease its restrictive policy, with the first cut in June and 75bp total in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think GDP was unchanged month-to-month in February, after rising 0.2% in January.
- Poor weather likely weighed on construction, but services and manufacturing probably grew slightly.
- That would put GDP on track to rise 0.2-to-0.3% in Q1, above the MPC’s forecast of 0.1%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 3.0% in March, from 3.4% in February, 0.1pp weaker than the MPC expects.
- Declines in food and core goods inflation account for most of the slowdown in March.
- Services inflation likely matched the MPC’s forecast of 5.8% in March.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Almost back to growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Consumer caution fading in response to lower interest rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Small correction in March is just a blip.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
