Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

7 July 2022 Medium-term Economic Prospects could be Brighter with a New PM

The potential medium-term gains might make the nearterm stasis caused by a new Tory leader contest worth it.

A more pragmatic approach to E.U. relations would lift exports and capex; supply-side reforms are overdue.

A snap election isn't likely, given the big majority a new leader would inherit and the poor economic backdrop.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

6 July 2022 Britain is Unlikely to Run Out of Natural Gas This Winter

Domestic production accounts for nearly half of natural gas consumption, well above the European average.

Imports from Russia accounted for only 5% of the total; the U.K. has long-term deals with Norway and Qatar.

The bigger risk is that manufacturers are indirectly af- fected by rolling blackouts in other European countries.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, June 2022

  • In one line: The survey’s signal of steady growth in Q2 shouldn’t be trusted.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 July 2022 Forecast Review: The Inflation Roller Coaster has Become Even Steeper

The MPC and consensus still aren't downbeat enough on Q2 GDP; we look for a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter drop.

CPI inflation now looks set to approach 11% in October, driven by further huge rises in food and energy prices...

...But wage growth and inflation expectations haven’t risen, while producer price inflation now is set to plunge.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 July 2022 Households' Didn't Reduce their Saving Enough in Q2 to Stop Spending Falling

Households have not saved sufficiently less in Q2 to offset the hit to spending from the huge real income drop.

The high level of ad-hoc mortgage and unsecured debt repayments shows households remain cautious.

Households usually slash their saving rate when total financial wealth is growing quickly; it is barely rising now.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, May 2022

  • In one line: Households’ cautious saving and borrowing behaviour points to lower real expenditure in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 July 2022 Most of Q1's Increase in GDP Likely was Reversed in Q2

The first quarter’s rise in GDP has brittle foundations; households have had to retrench in Q2.

The support to GDP growth from restocking will fade; firms now have enough inventory to meet demand.

A recession, however, isn’t likely; households’ real dis- posable incomes will rise in Q3, and capex will recover.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, June 2022

  • In one line: Slight slowdown in year-over-year growth just the start.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 June 2022 Services Inflation is High Only Due to Energy Price Rises and Tax Changes

Rising energy prices likely accounted for 1.6 percentage points of May's 4.9% rate of services CPI inflation.

While the jump in the VAT rate for the hospitality and recreation sector likely has lifted it by a further 0.6pp.

Underlying services inflation, therefore, only just exceeds its 2.5% average rate in the second half of the 2010s.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

29 June 2022 Does Higher Inflation than in the Euro- zone Point to a U.K.-Specific Problem?

CPI inflation in May was 1pp higher in the U.K. than in theEurozone; Brexit hasn’t helped but isn’t the main cause.

U.K. core goods prices were depressed more by lock- downs; base effects will lower the U.K.’s rate soon.

The relative strength of U.K. services inflation is due to VAT hikes and a rise in course costs for E.U. students.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 June 2022 House Prices Now Likely to Fall in H2, Due to the Surge in Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have surged in recent months, but still have a lot further to rise over the summer.

Monthly mortgage payments for the average borrower will be £300 higher in July than at the end of 2021.

Prices will be supported by the solid labour market and savings, but the hit from higher rates will dominate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 June 2022 The Nadir in Retail Sales is Near, but Growth will be Lacklustre in H2

Retail sales volumes continued to decline in May in response to rapidly rising prices. 

Consumer confidence deteriorated further in June, but retail sales should start to recover slowly soon... 

Real disposable incomes will rise in Q3, thanks to Mr. Sunak’s grants; dis-saving and borrowing will help too. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 June 2022 June's Stable PMI Provides Little Reassurance on Q2 GDP

The composite PMI held steady at 53.1 in June, but it has been misleadingly upbeat in recent months.

It excludes the retail and public sectors, both of which will drag on quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2.

We still forecast a 0.7% q/q drop in Q2 GDP, and only a 25bp increase in Bank Rate in August.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

June 2022 - U.K. Economic Chartbook*

  • The Labour Market No Longer Is Tightening....Core CPI Inflation Has Peaked; Markets Are Wrong On The MPC

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, June 2022

  • In one line: Underlying demand has stopped growing and output price inflation is starting to ease.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, May 2022

  • In one line: Borrowing exceeding the OBR’s forecast, though downward revisions seem likely.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 June 2022 Core CPI inflation Already has Peaked and will Fall Rapidly in Early 2023

Core CPI inflation declined to 5.9% in May, from 6.2% in April, and will fall further in June.

Retailers are shrinking their margins, rather than passing on surging producer prices fully to consumers.

Faltering demand will constrain future core price rises, enabling the MPC to stop its hiking cycle this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, April

  • In one line:  Month-to-month gains are slowing, as higher mortgage rates bite.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence