UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- A key driver of the rise in the labour supply over the past decade has been fewer people looking after family/home.
- Childcare reforms, due to be rolled out in April 2024, look set to provide a further boost of around 0.2pp...
- ...A lower birth rate also will help; we see a 0.7% rise in the workforce each year over the next three years.
UK
- Repeated revisions and the omission of self-employment make the PAYE data an imperfect guide to employment.
- The claimant count was slower to rise in the late 2000s recession than the LFS measure of unemployment.
- Older people, part-time job-seekers and most visa- holders can’t claim; they are more numerous now.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The manufacturing sector isn’t out of the woods, yet.
UK
- In one line: Still too pessimistic a signal in our eyes.
UK
- In one line: Still more labour market slack than the MPC expected.
UK
- The headline October PMI remains consistent with a small 0.2% quarter-on-quarter dip in GDP in Q4...
- ...But we think it’s too downbeat; higher real household incomes should spur a further recovery in GDP.
- The PMI suggests CPI inflation will continue to slow, enabling the MPC to cut Bank Rate as early as Q2.
UK
- House prices will fall further over the next six months, with affordability remaining a key barrier.
- Mortgage rates, however, should fall sharply in 2024, if Bank Rate drops by 75bp from Q2, as we expect.
- So following a 6% peak-to-trough fall, house prices should start to recover from Q2, rising by 5% in 2024.
UK
- In one line: Temporary fall driven by warmer-than-usual weather.
UK
- In one line: Still undershooting the OBR’s forecast, but don’t expect significant pre-election tax cuts.
Samuel TombsUK
- September’s fall in retail sales likely will prove temporary, since it was largely due to warmer-than-usual weather...
- ...The 0.9% jump in real incomes we expect in Q4 should support a recovery over the remainder of the year.
- The rise in real incomes also should spur a recovery in consumers’ confidence; October’s fall likely is a blip.
UK
- CPI INFLATION WILL BE SUB-3% IN SIX MONTHS' TIME...
...THE MPC WILL CUT RATES SOONER THAN MARKETS EXPECT
Samuel TombsUK
- The Business Insights and Conditions survey suggests GDP is still edging up, while fewer firms are hiking prices.
- Both the BIC survey and the latest redundancy notification data imply employment will hold steady in Q4, not fall.
- Don’t expect the hawkish MPC members to change their tune just because long-dated gilt yields have risen.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: House prices still have further to fall.
UK
- In one line: The pick-up in month-to-month growth in prices won’t be sustained.
Samuel TombsUK
- The headline rate held steady in September due to one- off large increases in motor fuel and education prices.
- Producer price data continue to point to ample scope for food and core goods CPI inflation to drop further.
- Most service providers are slowing price rises now that energy costs have peaked and wage growth is slowing.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Wage growth is slowing quickly enough for the MPC to keep Bank Rate at 5.25% next month.
Samuel TombsUK
- Month-to-month growth in ex-bonus wages in August was just half the average of previous months of 2023.
- The flat trend in employment will persist, but further growth in the workforce will lift the unemployment rate.
- The PAYE measure of median pay implies growth in the official measure of wages slowed further in September.
Samuel TombsUK
- Stock levels are higher than in the late 2010s, despite supply chain improvement and the jump in Bank Rate.
- Surveys, however, indicate businesses think stocks levels are broadly adequate given current demand.
- Running-down stocks of imported goods by definition will leave GDP unscathed; a recession isn’t likely.
Samuel TombsUK
- The headline rate of CPI inflation likely remained at 6.7% in September, undershooting the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp.
- BRC and Eurozone data suggest food and core goods CPI inflation fell further, but services inflation likely rose...
- ...Fees for private schools and nurseries probably increased more in September than a year ago.
Samuel TombsUK
