UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, February 2024

• In one line: Trade deficit little changed in February, but will improve this year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, February 2024

• In one line: GDP is on track for 0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q1, beating MPC forecasts.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, February 2024

• In one line:Consumer caution fading in response to lower interest rates.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, February 2024

In one line: Retail sales are on track to drag the economy out of recession in Q1.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, February 2024

• In one line: Slowing inflation will raise MPC confidence in a summer rate cut.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, February 2024

• In one line: House price gains heading to 5% year-over-year soon.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, January/February 2023

• In one line: Downside wage growth surprise will raise MPC confidence that inflation pressures are fading.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, February 2024

• In one line: Expected interest rate cuts breathe life into house building.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, February 2024

• In one line: Growth beating the MPC's forecast, supporting services inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, February 2024

• In one line: Stagnant, but real wage growth and interest rate cuts will help. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, February 2024

• In one line: Rain stopped play, sales will recover.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, February 2024

• In one line: Large bounce in the output index looks suspicious.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, February 2024

• In one line: Mortgage rate falls do the trick.  

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, February 2024

• In one line: Forget the small drop; improving real wage growth will keep confidence rising.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, February 2024

• In one line: Still consistent with GDP growth exceeding the MPC’s forecast, and a very gradual slowing in services CPI inflation.

Samuel TombsUK