UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- ‘Easter-adjusted’ BRC retail sales probably rose 1.2% year-over-year in March, similar to February.
- We expect a 0.3% month-to-month increase in official retail sales volumes in March.
- Retail volumes will continue rising after March as real income increases and relative goods prices fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for PAYE employment to rise by 30K in March and the unemployment rate to stay at 3.9%.
- We expect a 0.3% month-to-month rise in average weekly earnings ex bonuses in February...
- ... Leaving year-over-year wage growth on track to undershoot the MPC’s Q1 forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Report on Jobs survey says it’s time to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expected interest rate cuts prove to be an effective tonic for construction.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Growth beating the MPC's forecast and services inflation easing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Weak private car sales suggest consumer caution.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth to average 0.3% this year, driven by rising household real income.
- Energy-price cuts will pull inflation below 2% in Q2; sticky services will return inflation above 2% in Q4.
- We expect the MPC gradually to ease its restrictive policy, with the first cut in June and 75bp total in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think GDP was unchanged month-to-month in February, after rising 0.2% in January.
- Poor weather likely weighed on construction, but services and manufacturing probably grew slightly.
- That would put GDP on track to rise 0.2-to-0.3% in Q1, above the MPC’s forecast of 0.1%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 3.0% in March, from 3.4% in February, 0.1pp weaker than the MPC expects.
- Declines in food and core goods inflation account for most of the slowdown in March.
- Services inflation likely matched the MPC’s forecast of 5.8% in March.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Almost back to growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Consumer caution fading in response to lower interest rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Small correction in March is just a blip.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Still a minor technical recession last year, but the economy is already rebounding.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- February’s money and credit data show consumer caution fading, which should support GDP growth.
- Mortgage approvals hit an 18-month high, and lumpsum repayments fell to their lowest since May 2020.
- Declines in mortgage interest rates this year will boost the housing market and spending further.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Revised data still show a minor recession last year, but it’s an even smaller 0.4% cumulative GDP fall.
- The recession was driven by rising saving, as consumers worried about energy bills and interest rates.
- The saving rate won’t increase further from its elevated level, so consumption can recover in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
CPI INFLATION WILL BE SUB-2.0% AS SOON AS APRIL...
- ...THE MPC HAS THE CONFIDENCE TO START CUTTING IN JUNE
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The OBR expects the economy to grow three times as fast in 2025 as the MPC does.
- Its productivity growth forecast, however, is likely to be disappointed, boosting government borrowing.
- Without action, government debt-to-GDP will probably still be rising in 2029.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We estimate that house prices were trending up at a 0.4% month-to-month rate in February.
- We expect monthly house-purchase mortgage approvals to rise to 65K in May, from 55K in January.
- Gradual mortgage-rate falls and firm income growth should allow house prices to rise 4% in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Last week the MPC hammered home the message that rate cuts are coming soon.
- The Committee will likely reduce inflation persistence in its May forecasts, setting up a June rate cut.
- We think the MPC will cut more slowly than the market expects, as it learns from the data where neutral is.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Retail sales are on track to drag the economy out of recession in Q1.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
