UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Samuel Tombs
- Repeated revisions and the omission of self-employment make the PAYE data an imperfect guide to employment.
- The claimant count was slower to rise in the late 2000s recession than the LFS measure of unemployment.
- Older people, part-time job-seekers and most visa- holders can’t claim; they are more numerous now.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Still undershooting the OBR’s forecast, but don’t expect significant pre-election tax cuts.
Samuel TombsUK
- CPI INFLATION WILL BE SUB-3% IN SIX MONTHS' TIME...
...THE MPC WILL CUT RATES SOONER THAN MARKETS EXPECT
Samuel TombsUK
- The Business Insights and Conditions survey suggests GDP is still edging up, while fewer firms are hiking prices.
- Both the BIC survey and the latest redundancy notification data imply employment will hold steady in Q4, not fall.
- Don’t expect the hawkish MPC members to change their tune just because long-dated gilt yields have risen.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The pick-up in month-to-month growth in prices won’t be sustained.
Samuel TombsUK
- The headline rate held steady in September due to one- off large increases in motor fuel and education prices.
- Producer price data continue to point to ample scope for food and core goods CPI inflation to drop further.
- Most service providers are slowing price rises now that energy costs have peaked and wage growth is slowing.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Wage growth is slowing quickly enough for the MPC to keep Bank Rate at 5.25% next month.
Samuel TombsUK
- Month-to-month growth in ex-bonus wages in August was just half the average of previous months of 2023.
- The flat trend in employment will persist, but further growth in the workforce will lift the unemployment rate.
- The PAYE measure of median pay implies growth in the official measure of wages slowed further in September.
Samuel TombsUK
- Stock levels are higher than in the late 2010s, despite supply chain improvement and the jump in Bank Rate.
- Surveys, however, indicate businesses think stocks levels are broadly adequate given current demand.
- Running-down stocks of imported goods by definition will leave GDP unscathed; a recession isn’t likely.
Samuel TombsUK
- The headline rate of CPI inflation likely remained at 6.7% in September, undershooting the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp.
- BRC and Eurozone data suggest food and core goods CPI inflation fell further, but services inflation likely rose...
- ...Fees for private schools and nurseries probably increased more in September than a year ago.
Samuel TombsUK
