Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

18 October 2023 UK Monitor Wage Growth Slowing Fast Enough to Justify No Further Rate Hikes

  • Month-to-month growth in ex-bonus wages in August was just half the average of previous months of 2023.
  • The flat trend in employment will persist, but further growth in the workforce will lift the unemployment rate.
  • The PAYE measure of median pay implies growth in the official measure of wages slowed further in September.

Samuel TombsUK

17 October 2023 UK Monitor Will Inventory Rundowns by Businesses Trigger Recession?

  • Stock levels are higher than in the late 2010s, despite supply chain improvement and the jump in Bank Rate.
  • Surveys, however, indicate businesses think stocks levels are broadly adequate given current demand.
  • Running-down stocks of imported goods by definition will leave GDP unscathed; a recession isn’t likely.

Samuel TombsUK

16 October 2023 UK Monitor CPI Inflation Likely Held Steady in September, Below the MPC's Forecast

  • The headline rate of CPI inflation likely remained at 6.7% in September, undershooting the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp.
  • BRC and Eurozone data suggest food and core goods CPI inflation fell further, but services inflation likely rose...
  • ...Fees for private schools and nurseries probably increased more in September than a year ago.

Samuel TombsUK

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence