UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Brexit, demand uncertainty, staff shortages and high interest rates have held back business investment.
- All of these drags should ease, with staff shortages falling and the MPC likely to cut rates this summer.
- Firms’ investment intentions point to 1.5% year-over- year capex growth, an upside risk to our forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline and services inflation overshot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp and 0.2pp, respectively…
- …Reflecting stronger-than-expected underlying price pressures, not the impact of an early Easter.We still expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, but are very close to delaying that first cut to August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC will note the sharp employment drop, which suggests a risk the labour market is loosening quickly.
- But the headline jobs data are ropey, and surveys point to employment slowly rising.
- The MPC will focus more on stronger-than-expected pay, which suggests June is the earliest for a rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ben Bernanke’s review of BoE forecasting makes detailed modelling recommendations.
- But it gives wide latitude on how to use scenarios and does not recommend publishing a policy rate path.
- Nothing new for markets near term; in the medium term, changes are still open to debate.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- UK interest rates have followed the US in most major cycles since the mid-1970s.
- Exceptions to this when the economies have diverged mean the MPC can cut rates in June as inflation slows.
- The MPC will be cautious about the pace of cuts, given sticky services inflation and to avoid GBP falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 3.0% in March, from 3.4% in February, 0.1pp weaker than the MPC forecast.
- The early-Easter boost probably led to servicesinflation of 5.9%, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
- Services inflation should drop sharply to 5.2% in April as those Easter effects unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- ‘Easter-adjusted’ BRC retail sales probably rose 1.2% year-over-year in March, similar to February.
- We expect a 0.3% month-to-month increase in official retail sales volumes in March.
- Retail volumes will continue rising after March as real income increases and relative goods prices fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We look for PAYE employment to rise by 30K in March and the unemployment rate to stay at 3.9%.
- We expect a 0.3% month-to-month rise in average weekly earnings ex bonuses in February...
- ... Leaving year-over-year wage growth on track to undershoot the MPC’s Q1 forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think GDP was unchanged month-to-month in February, after rising 0.2% in January.
- Poor weather likely weighed on construction, but services and manufacturing probably grew slightly.
- That would put GDP on track to rise 0.2-to-0.3% in Q1, above the MPC’s forecast of 0.1%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 3.0% in March, from 3.4% in February, 0.1pp weaker than the MPC expects.
- Declines in food and core goods inflation account for most of the slowdown in March.
- Services inflation likely matched the MPC’s forecast of 5.8% in March.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- February’s money and credit data show consumer caution fading, which should support GDP growth.
- Mortgage approvals hit an 18-month high, and lumpsum repayments fell to their lowest since May 2020.
- Declines in mortgage interest rates this year will boost the housing market and spending further.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The OBR expects the economy to grow three times as fast in 2025 as the MPC does.
- Its productivity growth forecast, however, is likely to be disappointed, boosting government borrowing.
- Without action, government debt-to-GDP will probably still be rising in 2029.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We estimate that house prices were trending up at a 0.4% month-to-month rate in February.
- We expect monthly house-purchase mortgage approvals to rise to 65K in May, from 55K in January.
- Gradual mortgage-rate falls and firm income growth should allow house prices to rise 4% in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Last week the MPC hammered home the message that rate cuts are coming soon.
- The Committee will likely reduce inflation persistence in its May forecasts, setting up a June rate cut.
- We think the MPC will cut more slowly than the market expects, as it learns from the data where neutral is.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC’s tweaked guidance moves it closer to cutting rates.
- It continues to set sizeable hurdles to the first cut, downplaying weakening wages and inflation.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, but still see risks skewed to a delay until August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp in February, as base effects unwound.
- Every month that passes without inflation surprising the MPC to the upside brings us closer to a rate cut.
- The MPC’s measure of underlying services inflation is proving sticky, however, keeping it cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The BoE’s Q1 Inflation Attitudes survey is encouraging; long-run expectations are below average.
- A methodology change in 2020 distorted the data though, potentially biasing expectations downwards.
- YouGov’s survey, meanwhile, shows long-term expectations 0.4pp above average.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC will need to cut rates rapidly if the weak Report on Jobs survey is right about pay growth.
- The RoJ reliably shows the direction of pay but is less good at measuring the precise growth rate.
- Other—also reliable—surveys are stronger; pay is slowing, but not as much as the RoJ indicates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Weaker-than-expected inflation and wages likely raise MPC confidence in a summer rate cut.
- A stronger-than-expected growth rebound suggests some caution still.
- So, we expect no major change to the guidance at the MPC’s meeting on March 21.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP’s 0.2% month-to-month gain in January shows last year’s recession will prove fleeting.
- Stripping out the noise, GDP has been improving since the low point last October.
- We expect GDP to grow 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, beating the MPC’s forecast of 0.1%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
