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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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22 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Political Noise Improves at the Margin

  • Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro holds
  • Chile — What is next for the constitutional process?
  • Peru — The new Finance Minister is taking action

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Can President Bolsonaro Close the Gap on Lula in Coming Weeks

  • Leftist ex-president Lula remains the frontrunner in Brazil’s presidential race, but the gap is narrowing.
  • Mr. Bolsonaro’s recent economic policies, including tax relief and increased fiscal aid, are paying-off, just.
  • The race is up for grabs, but we expect no radical change in economic policy, regardless of who wins.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor FX Update Bold Hikes Protect Currencies Against Political Risk

Brazilian Real — Will political risk sky-rocket soon?

Mexican Peso — Resilient, despite AMLO

Argentinian Peso — A new FX rate for soy exports

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Sept 2022 LatAm Monitor Chile Resoundingly Rejects Mr. Boric's New Constitution; Now What?

  • Voters in Chile have overwhelmingly rejected a new constitution; now it is time for a moderate approach.
  • Inflation in Colombia is still running hot, due mostly to food prices and a robust domestic demand.
  • BanRep will continue to hike rates this year, but we still believe that inflation will start to fall in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 Aug 2022 LatAm Monitor Political Uncertainty Keeps Pressure

Brazil — Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows, just

Mexico — AMLO’s protectionist policies bite

Chile — A “rejection” of the new constitution is ahead

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 July 2022 Latin America Political Update Increased Tensions as the Recovery Falters

Brazil — Increasing spending ahead of the election

Chile — Turbulent weeks ahead

Peru — Mr. Castillo's troubled first year

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 July 2022 Chile's BCCh is Playing Harder, but Inflation Risks Continue to Mount

The inflation picture in Chile has deteriorated markedly, forcing the BCCh to increase rates boldly... 

...But the rapid tightening failed to bring the CLP under control, prompting FX intervention last week. 

Volatility likely will ease in the near term, but further rate hikes in the short run will be needed. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 July 2022 Battered by Deteriorating Domestic and External Conditions

Brazil — Increasing fiscal uncertainty is hurting

Mexico — Global risk aversion remains the drag

Chile — Hit by lower copper prices and politics

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 June 2022 Left-wing Candidate Petro Wins in Colombia; What Next?

Gustavo Petro makes history after being elected Colombia's first leftist president.

A fragmented and divided Congress will cap his room for action; this will limit the market sell-off.

Mr. Petro will face tough challenges, included a deep- ly divided country, and worried business community.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 June 2022 High Political Risk Limits the FX Rebound

Brazilian Real — Concerns about fiscal slippage

Mexican Peso — A decent near-term outlook

Colombian Peso — Anti-Establishment Populism Won 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 June 2022 Colombia's Inflation Remains a Headache, Despite Easing in May

Inflation in Colombia edged lower in May, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.

Core inflation continues to head north rapidly, thanks mainly to a solid economic recovery.

Conditions will improve over the second half of the year, assuming Mr. Hernández wins the presidency.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

31 May 2022 Anti-Establishment Populism Won in Colombia's Presidential Vote

Gustavo Petro, the left-wing leader, clearly won the first round of Colombia’s presidential election.

He will face the former city mayor Rodolfo Hernández, who received the support of the defeated Fico.

This gives him the upper hand in next month's run- off, but even if Petro wins, Colombia will do well.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 May 2022 Is Colombia on the Verge of a Remarkable Political Shift

Next Sunday's presidential election in Colombia is wide open, though Mr. Petro is leading the race.

He will make it into the second round, but we still believe that Mr. Fico will win on a photo finish.

Uncertainty is high, the upturn of Mr. Hernández in the polls complicates Mr. Fico's path to the runoff.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 May 2022 Chile's GDP Contracted Sharply in Q1, Payback After a Solid 2021

Chile’s recovery has stalled, due to plunging domestic demand; the upturn will resume, but risks remain.

The constitutional process is entering the final phase; the most controversial issues have been ditched...

...But uncertainty persists, and voters are disenchanted; the process likely will end up being a disaster.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 May 2022 Under Global Clouds

Brazil — Hurt by increased risk aversion

Mexico — Increased global uncertainty hits the BVM

Colombia — Under pressure, despite solid dividends

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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