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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

international reserves Fiscal Policy

21 Jan 2022 Are Rising Commodity Prices a Blessing or Curse for LatAm

  • The recovery in commodity prices should strengthen LatAm public finances and external accounts.
  • Capex will also rise this year, if the commodity uptrend is sustained; political risk, however, is a drag.
  • A sustained rebound in prices would also keep inflation high, complicating some central banks' plans.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Jan 2022 High Political Risk Remain a Burden

  • Brazil — Bolsonaro's support hits fresh lows
  • Mexico — AMLO's nationalism gathers speed
  • Colombia — A busy election cycle starts

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 Jan 2022 Brazil's Economic Activity Improved in Q4, but H1 will be a Washout

  • Brazil's economic activity index suggests growth improved at the margin in Q4.
  • Leading indicators, high political risk and tighter financial conditions mean that H1 will be a washout.
  • Argentina's inflation was too high at the end of last year; 2022 will be challenging.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Dec 2021 A Nail-Biting Second Round in Chile on Sunday; Mr. Boric Likely will Win

Sunday's run-off between leftist Gabriel Boric and the right-win José Antonio Kast is anyone’s race.

Polls suggest that Mr. Boric will win, by a small margin; if this is the case, markets won't be happy.

We expect challenging times ahead, but conditions will improve as his presidency progresses; we hope.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Dec 2021 Brazil's COPOM to Hike "Significantly" Despite the Weakness of the Economy

  • Brazil's COPOM indicates that it is appropriate to tighten “significantly” as inflation remains too high.
  • The Board has shifted towards a more hawkish po- sition in order to bring inflation expectations down.
  • We expect a terminal rate of 11.5%, even with the economy slipping into a renewed recession.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Nov 2021 Chileans Go to the Polls this Sunday, Colombia's GDP Rebounding Solidly

  • Chile is set to vote on Sunday in one of most unpredictable elections in years; a runoff is likely.
  • Colombia's GDP has resumed its solid rebound in Q3, following a self-inflicted shock in Q2.
  • Momentum likely will continue to improve over the next few months; BanRep will have to hike further.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Nov 2021 Inflation Remain High in BrazMex, Forcing Policymakers' Hands

  • Banxico continues to tighten in an effort to anchor inflation expectations and to protect the MXN.
  • Inflation in Brazil surprised to the upside in October; the COPOM likely will hike further in the near term.
  • Tighter monetary policy, less-harsh base effects, and the sluggish economy, will push inflation down soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 Sept 2021 High Inflation and a Decent Recovery Means More Monetary Tightening

  • Brazil's COPOM delivers the expected bold rate hike, and announces more to come in the near term.
  • Banxico will follow through as inflation surprises sub- stantially to the upside, despite AMLO's efforts.
  • BraMex inflation has been hit by the perfect storm; bad weather, supply issues, and the reopening.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Sept 2021 The Pandemic Adds to the Existing Political Discontent

  • Argentina — PASO results spell trouble for ruling party
  • Chile — The election race remains wide open
  • Peru — Castillo is already encountering roadblocks

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Sept 2021 July Activity was Solid in the Andes, but Political Risk is the Narrative

  • July activity was firm in Peru, but the slowdown narrative remains, due to increased political risk.
  • Capex likely will suffer next year, if the government takes a misstep; a downtrend is already emerging.
  • Chile's central bank minutes set the table for further bold rate hikes, neutrality is around the corner.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Sept 2021 Colombia's Recovery Consolidated in Q3, but Momentum will Ease Soon

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Colombia’s economic recovery continues; output is well above its pre-crisis level, but risks are emerging.

The pace of the rebound will ease soon, due to high inflation and tighter monetary policy.

Political risk is diminishing, thanks to a social-driven tax reform, but more tightening is coming.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Sept 2021 Retail Activity in Brazil Rebounded in July, but Momentum will Ease Soon

  • Brazil's retail sector started Q3 on a solid footing, thanks to lower Covid cases and further fiscal aid.
  • The recovery, however, still looks set to slow over the coming months, as inflation picks up.
  • A solid start to Q3 for Mexico's industrial sector, despite weakening survey data.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Sept 2021 Headline Inflation Slows in Mexico, thanks to AMLO, Core is Climbing

  • Increased inflation pressures and prospects of DM policy normalisation complicate LatAm policy.
  • Inflation in Mexico slowed in August, thanks mainly to price controls, but core pressures are building up.
  • The 2022 budget proposal signals a pledge to fiscal discipline, but some of the assumptions are shaky.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 Aug 2021 Stocks Under Pressure Due to High Political Risk and Rising Inflation Pressures

Mexico — Doing well, despite many challenges

Chile — Politics and copper prices cap the upturn

Peru — Political uncertainty will remain a drag

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Aug 2021 Temporary Shocks will Keep Brazil's Inflation Too High For Comfort in Q4

  • The jump in Brazil's IPCA inflation in July shows that temporary shocks are filtering through quickly.
  • Inflation will remain well above the target range this year, forcing the COPOM to act boldly soon.
  • Peru's central bank president agreed to continue in the post, boosting financial markets, for now.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Aug 2021 High Inflation will Force Brazil's BCB to Hike Rates Beyond Neutral Levels

Brazil's BCB indicates that it will tighten beyond neu- tral levels as the inflation outlook deteriorates.

The COPOM's hawkish rhetoric is good news in terms of re-anchoring inflation expectations.

Peru's BCRP will increase the main rate next week as the currency slide fuels inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Aug 2021 High Political Risk in the Andes Offsetting Upbeat Economic News

Peruvian New Sol —  President Castillo already on fire

Chilean Peso —The copper-driven sell-off

Colombian Peso — Deteriorating fundamentals

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 Aug 2021 Manufacturing in Brazil Struggled in Q2, but Conditions will Improve Soon

Brazilian industrial production ended Q2 on a soft footing, but leading indicators point to a decent H2.

That said, supply-side constraints and rising prices remain a big near-term threat for manufacturers.

Mexico’s PMI remained resilient in July, but a modest downtrend likely will emerge in Q3.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 July 2021 Political Risk Improves in the Andes

Chile — Political risk improves further

Peru — Castillo finally declared president-elect

Colombia — Duque presents a social-driven fiscal bill

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 July 2021 Peru's Economic Activity on its Way to Pre-crisis Levels After a Poor Q1

Peru's economic recovery resumed in May, following a poor performance in the three previous months, due to the worsening of the pandemic, and increased political/ policy risk.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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