Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- The recovery in commodity prices should strengthen LatAm public finances and external accounts.
- Capex will also rise this year, if the commodity uptrend is sustained; political risk, however, is a drag.
- A sustained rebound in prices would also keep inflation high, complicating some central banks' plans.
- In one line: A modest rebound, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
- Brazil's economic activity index suggests growth improved at the margin in Q4.
- Leading indicators, high political risk and tighter financial conditions mean that H1 will be a washout.
- Argentina's inflation was too high at the end of last year; 2022 will be challenging.
- Retail sales in Brazil improved on a sequential basis in Q4, due to a decent holiday season...
- ...But conditions remain difficult; leading indicators, point to near-term downside risks.
- The services sector upturn remains on track, but key activities will be temporary hit by Omicron.
- LatAm equities will struggle in the first half, due to an array of issues, particularly political risk.
- Conditions likely will improve in H2, as some shocks fade, but momentum will remain subdued.
- Tighter U.S. financial conditions will hurt the region, temporarily, but a rebound likely will the follow.
- Brazil inflation is slowing, but still-high core pres- sures in H1 will remain a headache for the BCB.
- This will prevent the COPOM from adopting a neutral bias in H1; expect more tightening ahead.
- November industrial production in Mexico undershot expectations, due to plunging construction output.
Brazil's industrial sector remained under stress in Q4, despite the gradual easing of supply shocks.
Surveys and sectoral data suggest that the recovery will resume soon, but Omicron could spoil it all.
The trade surplus, Brazil's bright spot in Q4, likely will decline in 2022 as domestic demand improves.
- In one line: Brazil's industrial recession continued in Q4.
- Pressures on Chilean markets are easing, after the sharp sell-off driven by Mr. Boric's presidential win.
- BanRep continued its normalisation process, with a split board looking for bolder action as inflation bites.
- Inflation in BraMex is peaking, but conditions will remain challenging in H1; more rate hikes are needed
Banxico tightened boldly yesterday as inflation continues to rise rapidly, pushing expectations higher.
Chile's central bank increased the main rate on Tuesday, and suggested that more is to come.
Colombia's BanRep will follow suit today, and likely will introduce a clearer hawkish tone.
- Mexico: A decent recovery ahead, but risks abound.
- Colombia: Politics will limit the rebound in Q1
- Chile: Near-term volatility driven by politics.
Sunday's run-off between leftist Gabriel Boric and the right-win JoseÌÂ Antonio Kast is anyone’s race.
Polls suggest that Mr. Boric will win, by a small margin; if this is the case, markets won't be happy.
We expect challenging times ahead, but conditions will improve as his presidency progresses; we hope.
The Mexican industrial sector started Q4 quite strongly, but the sector is still struggling.
Conditions likely will improve next year, as the chip crisis fades, but other drags will constrain activity.
Peru's central bank continues to normalise mone- tary policy; more is coming.
- In one line: A modest downtrend will soon emerge.
- Inflation in Brazil is finally peaking, as the effects of an array of shocks start to ease.
- Inflation in Mexico continues to rise rapidly and is now at its highest level since early 2001.
- Risks remain tilted to the upside, but we expect in- flation to ease gradually over the first half of the year.
- Brazil's COPOM indicates that it is appropriate to tighten “significantly” as inflation remains too high.
- The Board has shifted towards a more hawkish po- sition in order to bring inflation expectations down.
- We expect a terminal rate of 11.5%, even with the economy slipping into a renewed recession.
- In one line: A solid rebound, but the outlook remains challenging.
- In one line: Another recession, but the details are not as bad as the headline suggest.
- In one line: Manufacturing continues to succumb to global supply troubles.
Higher gasoline prices in Brazil likely won't derail the imminent drop in IPCA inflation as other shocks ease.
The lagged effect of tighter monetary policy will also put a lid on underlying inflation pressures.
Mexican markets under stress following AMLO's announcement of a new nominee as Banxico's head.