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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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22 Apr 2022 Economic Activity in Colombia Remained Resilient in Q1, for Now

Economic activity in Colombia remained resilient in February, but momentum will ease soon.

Retail sales performed strongly in February, but the drop in disposable income will be a drag in Q2.

High inflation and tighter financial conditions will be a drag soon; improving terms of trade will ease the hit.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Mar 2022 COPOM's Tightening Close to the End, if Commodity Prices Stabilize

  • COPOM minutes confirm that the end of the tightening is near, providing commodity prices stabilise.
  • The Board announced an additional 100pb rate hike in May, but has left the door open for H2.
  • Colombia's economic recovery stalled in January, due to Omicron and high inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Mar 2022 Equities Resilient as Commodities Rally

  • Colombia — Rising oil prices are a blessing, for now
  • Peru — Markets continue to shrug off politics
  • Mexico — Resilient, but near-term threats prevail

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Mar 2022 Chile's Inflation Undershot Expectations, but Risks Abound

  • Chile's inflation undershot expectations in February, thanks to a sharp fall in services prices...
  • ...But the good news won't last; upside risks prevail on the back of rising oil prices, and high indexation.
  • The BCCh will continue to hike rates to avoid the spread of the energy shock into other prices.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Mar 2022 No Room for the Doves in Q2 and Q3, Challenging Times for Policymakers

  • The global inflation outlook continues to deteriorate and monetary tightening will need to be meaningful.
  • Increasing inflation implies that central banks are likely to continue tightening rates, hurting activity.
  • Inflation in Colombia validates our view of bold monetary tightening, despite the COP's rebound.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Mar 2022 Brazil's Economy Surprised to the Upside in Q4, but 2022 will be Tough

  • Brazilian Q4 GDP growth pleased markets, thanks to the reopening and modest fiscal support....
  • ...But conditions have turned challenging for both investment and private consumption.
  • Deteriorating confidence is the key threat to the up-turn, but we see no near-term catalyst for rebound.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Feb 2022 February Inflation in BraMex Likely will Keep Policymakers Uneasy

  • February CPI inflation in Brazil and Mexico likely will maintain the pressure on policymakers.
  • The disinflation trend likely will resume in March, but rising global oil prices are a big threat.
  • Rising inflation expectations, and lingering core pressures, will force policymakers to hike soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Feb 2022 Colombian Consumers Can't Keep Driving Solid Economic Growth

  • Colombian GDP rose by a brisk 4.3% in Q4, due mainly to solid private consumption...
  • ...But a consumer-led slowdown is coming; high inflation, and tighter financial conditions will be drags.
  • The second half of the year likely will be better, but increased political/policy uncertainty is a key threat.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Feb 2022 The Commodity Price Rally Continues; Good News for LatAm

  • Commodity prices continue to rebound, which will help to ease LatAm's risk profile in the near term.
  • The threat of a Russia-Ukraine war is supporting prices, but downside risks remain.
  • High actual inflation and rising inflation expectations will force the BCRP to continue to tighten.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 Feb 2022 Brazil's Economy Muddled Through in Q4, but the Outlook is Bleak

  • Brazil's economy muddled through the fourth quarter, but there's nothing to cheer about.
  • The services economy performed strongly in Q4, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.
  • Inflation surprised to the downside in January, but this won't bring any comfort to the COPOM.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 Feb 2022 Banxico Delivers a Bold Rate Hike, and More will be Needed Soon

  • Banxico delivers a bold rate hike, as core inflation pressures remain out of control.
  • Inflation will continue to ease over the course of the year; a sluggish economic activity will help.
  • The Fed's tightening likely will drive market volatility, but it probably won't be as bad as during 2015.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Feb 2022 LatAm Stocks Boosted by Commodity Prices

  • Brazil — A robust start to the year, but risks prevail
  • Chile — A potential orthodox Boric appeases investors
  • Peru — The rebound continues, despite politics

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Feb 2022 A Bigger Tightening Cycle in Brazil, Chile's Inflation is Running Wild

  • Brazil's COPOM delivered a more hawkish tone in its last minutes, but the pace of tightening will ease.
  • Deteriorating fiscal conditions are a real concern, despite the sluggishness of the economic cycle.
  • Inflation in Chile is rising rapidly, and we expect the uptrend to continue over H1; the BCCh will act soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Feb 2022 Brazil's Industrial Sector Gathered Speed in Q4, Just Before a Tough H1

  • Brazil's industrial sector managed to avert a technical recession, thanks to a solid upturn in December...
  • ...But leading indicators are consistent with poor underlying momentum in economic activity in H1.
  • The labour market recovery continued in Q4, but progress likely will stall in Q1, due to Omicron.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 Feb 2022 The COPOM Continues to Tighten, but What is Next for Policymakers

  • Brazil's COPOM delivered a well-telegraphed bold rate hike, aiming to push inflation expectations lower.
  • It also sent a clear signal that it plans to reduce the pace of monetary tightening, as conditions improve.
  • Brazil posted its first primary surplus since 2013, but the good news won't last.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Feb 2022 Supported by Rising Commodity Prices

  • Brazilian Real — A solid commodity-driven rally
  • Colombian Peso — Supported by rising oil prices
  • Chilean Peso — Political risks ease, for now

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 Feb 2022 Services Pushed Mexico into a Technical Session, Q1 will be Tough

  • The Mexican recession likely will be short-lived, but the Omicron shock in Q1 is a big threat.
  • GDP rose by 5.0% in 2021; we expect growth of close to 2.0% this year, but downside risks remain.
  • Colombia's BanRep finally joins the hawkish party with a bold hike; more is around the corner.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

28 Jan 2022 Brazil's Sticky Disinflation Continues, The BCCh is on Alert

  • Brazil's underlying inflation is trending down, albeit from high levels, on the back of many shocks.
  • A sluggish economic recovery and tighter financial conditions will continue to push inflation down.
  • The BCCh hiked interest rates boldly; hefty further tactical tightening looms if conditions deteriorate.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 Jan 2022 Mexico's Disinflation Continues, but Core Pressures Remain a Threat

  • Mexican headline inflation continues to edge down, but it’s too soon for a dovish shift from Banxico.
  • Core pressures persist and the near term remains tough, due to both external and domestic forces.
  • Colombia's domestic demand recovery continues, but it is faltering in Peru, following a solid H1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Jan 2022 Are Rising Commodity Prices a Blessing or Curse for LatAm

  • The recovery in commodity prices should strengthen LatAm public finances and external accounts.
  • Capex will also rise this year, if the commodity uptrend is sustained; political risk, however, is a drag.
  • A sustained rebound in prices would also keep inflation high, complicating some central banks' plans.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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