Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
country
Brazil — Mr. Lula is trying to win back the centre
Chile — Political risk continues to ease, for now
Peru — Jumping from one crisis to another
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexican headline inflation continues to edge down, but it’s too soon for a dovish shift from Banxico.
- Core pressures persist and the near term remains tough, due to both external and domestic forces.
- Colombia's domestic demand recovery continues, but it is faltering in Peru, following a solid H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Bolsonaro's support hits fresh lows
- Mexico — AMLO's nationalism gathers speed
- Colombia — A busy election cycle starts
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economic recovery continued in Q4, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing output.
- Private consumption is easing at the margin, on the back of high inflation and tighter monetary policy.
- The pace of the rebound will continue to ease on the back of increased political risk; H2 will be better.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil's economic activity index suggests growth improved at the margin in Q4.
- Leading indicators, high political risk and tighter financial conditions mean that H1 will be a washout.
- Argentina's inflation was too high at the end of last year; 2022 will be challenging.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- LatAm equities will struggle in the first half, due to an array of issues, particularly political risk.
- Conditions likely will improve in H2, as some shocks fade, but momentum will remain subdued.
- Tighter U.S. financial conditions will hurt the region, temporarily, but a rebound likely will the follow.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Pressures on Chilean markets are easing, after the sharp sell-off driven by Mr. Boric's presidential win.
- BanRep continued its normalisation process, with a split board looking for bolder action as inflation bites.
- Inflation in BraMex is peaking, but conditions will remain challenging in H1; more rate hikes are needed
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile's economy remains resilient thanks, to a solid vaccination program and robust policy support.
- Solid retail sales get Q4 consumption off to a very strong start, but momentum will ease soon.
- Challenging external conditions, high inflation, and political noise will limit the recovery in H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chilean GDP growth accelerated in Q3, but the strong data are backward-looking; 2022 looks shaky.
- Tighter fiscal and monetary policies likely will put the economy on the verge of a technical recession.
- Even assuming a Kast win, political risk will persist; the constitutional process will remain a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile is set to vote on Sunday in one of most unpredictable elections in years; a runoff is likely.
- Colombia's GDP has resumed its solid rebound in Q3, following a self-inflicted shock in Q2.
- Momentum likely will continue to improve over the next few months; BanRep will have to hike further.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Unstable political environment persists
- Colombia — Dissatisfaction is driving the undecided
- Chile — Will the country move to the left or right?
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The midterm election result in Argentina has diminished the chances of a Peronist second term.
- The ruling coalition, FdT, has lost the Senate; it will have to negotiate with JpC to implement key policies.
- The economy will continue to suffer in the near term; a deal with IMF is badly needed.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- High inflation, lingering supply shocks and tighter financial conditions, are weighing on Mexico's output.
- Some of the shocks will ease soon, but soaring energy prices and policy uncertainty will remain drags.
- Improving global demand and the U.S. infrastructure bill will support the manufacturing upturn next year.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Presidential and Congressional elections in Chile are fast approaching, and the race remains wide open.
- Argentina's inflation rebounded sharply in August, despite the government's efforts to limit the upturn.
- The reopening of the economy and unorthodox policies will keep inflation too high for comfort.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
