Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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17 Feb 2022 A Mixed Political Picture Across the Region

Brazil — Mr. Lula is trying to win back the centre

Chile — Political risk continues to ease, for now

Peru — Jumping from one crisis to another

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

25 Jan 2022 Mexico's Disinflation Continues, but Core Pressures Remain a Threat

  • Mexican headline inflation continues to edge down, but it’s too soon for a dovish shift from Banxico.
  • Core pressures persist and the near term remains tough, due to both external and domestic forces.
  • Colombia's domestic demand recovery continues, but it is faltering in Peru, following a solid H1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Jan 2022 High Political Risk Remain a Burden

  • Brazil — Bolsonaro's support hits fresh lows
  • Mexico — AMLO's nationalism gathers speed
  • Colombia — A busy election cycle starts

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Jan 2022 Colombia's Recovery Continues, but Momentum will Ease in H1

  • Colombia’s economic recovery continued in Q4, thanks mainly to solid manufacturing output.
  • Private consumption is easing at the margin, on the back of high inflation and tighter monetary policy.
  • The pace of the rebound will continue to ease on the back of increased political risk; H2 will be better.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 Jan 2022 Brazil's Economic Activity Improved in Q4, but H1 will be a Washout

  • Brazil's economic activity index suggests growth improved at the margin in Q4.
  • Leading indicators, high political risk and tighter financial conditions mean that H1 will be a washout.
  • Argentina's inflation was too high at the end of last year; 2022 will be challenging.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 Jan 2022 LatAM Equities Likely will Perform Badly in H1, before Key Drags Fade

  • LatAm equities will struggle in the first half, due to an array of issues, particularly political risk.
  • Conditions likely will improve in H2, as some shocks fade, but momentum will remain subdued.
  • Tighter U.S. financial conditions will hurt the region, temporarily, but a rebound likely will the follow.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

4 Jan 2022 Politics, Inflation and a Modest Recovery Set the Tone in LatAm

  • Pressures on Chilean markets are easing, after the sharp sell-off driven by Mr. Boric's presidential win.
  • BanRep continued its normalisation process, with a split board looking for bolder action as inflation bites.
  • Inflation in BraMex is peaking, but conditions will remain challenging in H1; more rate hikes are needed

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 Dec 2021 Chile's Economy Started Q4 on a Solid Footing, Despite Politics

  • Chile's economy remains resilient thanks, to a solid vaccination program and robust policy support.
  • Solid retail sales get Q4 consumption off to a very strong start, but momentum will ease soon.
  • Challenging external conditions, high inflation, and political noise will limit the recovery in H1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Nov 2021 The Chilean Economy Won't Have it Easy, Even if Pro-Business Kast Wins

  • Chilean GDP growth accelerated in Q3, but the strong data are backward-looking; 2022 looks shaky.
  • Tighter fiscal and monetary policies likely will put the economy on the verge of a technical recession.
  • Even assuming a Kast win, political risk will persist; the constitutional process will remain a threat.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Nov 2021 Chileans Go to the Polls this Sunday, Colombia's GDP Rebounding Solidly

  • Chile is set to vote on Sunday in one of most unpredictable elections in years; a runoff is likely.
  • Colombia's GDP has resumed its solid rebound in Q3, following a self-inflicted shock in Q2.
  • Momentum likely will continue to improve over the next few months; BanRep will have to hike further.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 Nov 2021 The Clouds are Gathering on LatAm Politics

  • Brazil — Unstable political environment persists    
  • Colombia — Dissatisfaction is driving the undecided
  • Chile — Will the country move to the left or right?

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Nov 2021 More Pain Ahead in Argentina, despite the Midterm Election Result

  • The midterm election result in Argentina has diminished the chances of a Peronist second term.
  • The ruling coalition, FdT, has lost the Senate; it will have to negotiate with JpC to implement key policies.
  • The economy will continue to suffer in the near term; a deal with IMF is badly needed.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Nov 2021 Surging Inflation will Continue to Hurt the Mexican Industrial Sector

  • High inflation, lingering supply shocks and tighter financial conditions, are weighing on Mexico's output.
  • Some of the shocks will ease soon, but soaring energy prices and policy uncertainty will remain drags.
  • Improving global demand and the U.S. infrastructure bill will support the manufacturing upturn next year.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Oct 2021 Increased Policy and Economic Uncertainty in the Southern Cone

  • Presidential and Congressional elections in Chile are fast approaching, and the race remains wide open.
  • Argentina's inflation rebounded sharply in August, despite the government's efforts to limit the upturn.
  • The reopening of the economy and unorthodox policies will keep inflation too high for comfort.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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