Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Brazil’s growth is weakening, but further rate cuts would prevent a protracted downtrend.
- The retail sector stalled in Q3, as tight financial conditions are curtailing activity; Q4 will be better.
- Low inflation will offset the hit from high real rates and a less helpful job market, but downside risks remain.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Argentina — Milei still doing well in the polls
- Colombia — All eyes on the regional elections
- Chile — Constitutional process in its final stages
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s GDP rebounded in August, thanks mainly to strong fishing activity and resilient consumption.
- Lower interest rates and falling inflation will enable economic activity to gather speed in Q4 and Q1...
- ...But El Niño is a big threat, along with choppy external conditions, potentially hitting key sectors.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Argentina is close to 150% year-over-year in the final stretch of the electoral campaign.
- The collapse of the ARS, increased political risk, and the fiscal and monetary chaos point to difficult times.
- Whoever wins—we think it will be Milei—will have the tough task of getting the economy back on track.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Banxico’s Board has become more cautious about when to start the normalization cycle.
- We still see a small chance of a rate cut in December, but recent global events are a constraint.
- The industrial report highlights that not all is rosy in the Mexican economy; manufacturing is struggling.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation pressures continue to ease in Brazil despite the ugly-looking rebound in Q3.
- Unfavourable base effects are to blame; disinflation will resume this month, ending Q4 at 4.8%.
- But upside risks have emerged lately, on geopolitical tensions and a potentially disruptive El Niño.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Hit by increased global uncertainty
- Argentina — Rebounding on stabilisation hopes
- Colombia — Rising oil prices are preventing a collapse
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation continues to fall in Colombia, but too slowly, due to temporary shocks including bad weather.
- Disinflation will continue, with the CPI back to single digits next month for first time since June 2022.
- Struggling domestic demand, and gradually falling inflation expectations, will allow BanRep to cut soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation continues in Mexico, with the headline now at its lowest rate since early 2021.
- Services inflation remained sticky in September, but chiefly due to sky-rocketing tuition fees.
- Inflation pressures will continue to abate, but elevated global uncertainty is now a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation continues, but at a slower pace.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Policymakers keep the door open for further rate cuts.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP cut the main rate and is leaving the door open to further easing in the near term.
- Disinflation continues in Chile, but food profiteering limited the downtrend in September.
- Struggling domestic demand points to a benign Q4, but El Niño and the CLP are key threats.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial production has essentially stagnated over the past few months.
- A sustained drag from capital goods production is mostly to blame, due largely to high interest rates.
- The job market has been relatively resilient this year, with employment still growing at a healthy pace.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Hit by a firmer greenback
- Mexican Peso — Hurt by collapse in risk appetite
- Colombian Peso — Under renewed pressure
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economy is weaker-than-expected, which will make the BCCh very uneasy.
- The lagged effect of tight fiscal and monetary policy will remain a key drag over the coming months.
- The labour market is under renewed strain, adding to the view that bolder rate cuts are needed.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- BanRep’s split decision to keep rates in Colombia on hold opens the door to cuts soon.
- Policymakers are worrying increasingly about the pace of economic activity; and they should.
- Disinflation is gathering steam in Peru, giving the BCRP leeway to act more aggressively.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Banxico keeps interest rates on hold as threats to inflation increase, on the back of a solid economy…
- …But the upside risks to inflation will fade soon, and the Fed will probably adopt a dovish shift.
- These factors will ease Banxico’s fears, and softening economic activity will allow it to cut rates.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America