Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: A solid finish to Q3, but the near-term outlook remains difficult.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s BanRep will likely cut rates very soon, as inflation continues to fall consistently.
- Increased borrowing costs are dampening domestic demand growth, despite BanRep’s liquidity boost.
- The labour market is already showing signs of fatigue, contrary to some hawkish Board members’ views.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy did well in Q3, but growth continues to ease on a sequential basis.
- Increased infrastructure spending and nearshoring are offsetting the hit from tighter financial conditions...
- ...But the upside boost will gradually fade, and a weakening global economy will also be a drag.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM cut the Selic rate by 50bp, and will keep this pace, as global risks are now a threat.
- A faster easing cycle is needed as the economy struggles and inflation remains in check.
- COPOM will be more dovish in Q1, potentially allowing bigger cuts, assuming the fiscal situation is benign.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Slowing the pace of easing, due mainly to a challenging external backdrop.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Brazil was under control in Q3, despite the uptick driven by unfavourable base effects.
- Alongside rapidly weakening economic activity, this will allow policymakers to cut rates boldly.
- Improving fiscal conditions also mean the COPOM can cut to neutral in Q2, but geopolitics are a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Economic activity in Mexico was resilient in Q3, but the current pace of growth is unsustainable.
- Key sectors, including manufacturing and retail, are now under pressure, as rising borrowing costs bite.
- The disinflation downtrend has consolidated, open- ing the door to small rate cuts in December or Q1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In Argentina, Peronist Massa beat Milei despite triple-digit inflation and a crumbling economy.
- Mr. Massa owes his success to exploiting fears of a run-off between the right-wing candidates.
- Peronism will retain the biggest minority in both chambers, but Milei’s party will gain traction.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid performance, but downside risks are gathering.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The U.S. government has relaxed the sanctions imposed on the Venezuelan oil & gas industry...
- ...A first step in the right direction, which will allow a revival of the struggling sector.
- Bond prices have rebounded, but we remain sceptical as long as President Maduro is in power.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s growth is weakening, but further rate cuts would prevent a protracted downtrend.
- The retail sector stalled in Q3, as tight financial conditions are curtailing activity; Q4 will be better.
- Low inflation will offset the hit from high real rates and a less helpful job market, but downside risks remain.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Argentina — Milei still doing well in the polls
- Colombia — All eyes on the regional elections
- Chile — Constitutional process in its final stages
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s GDP rebounded in August, thanks mainly to strong fishing activity and resilient consumption.
- Lower interest rates and falling inflation will enable economic activity to gather speed in Q4 and Q1...
- ...But El Niño is a big threat, along with choppy external conditions, potentially hitting key sectors.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Argentina is close to 150% year-over-year in the final stretch of the electoral campaign.
- The collapse of the ARS, increased political risk, and the fiscal and monetary chaos point to difficult times.
- Whoever wins—we think it will be Milei—will have the tough task of getting the economy back on track.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Banxico’s Board has become more cautious about when to start the normalization cycle.
- We still see a small chance of a rate cut in December, but recent global events are a constraint.
- The industrial report highlights that not all is rosy in the Mexican economy; manufacturing is struggling.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
