Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist) Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- Mexico’s industrial sector will drag on Q1 GDP amid construction woes, despite manufacturing reviving.
- Residential construction is struggling, but infrastructure is showing signs of improvement.
- The long downturn in manufacturing output is over, according to the PMI, but downside risks remain.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Resuming rate cuts but keeping a cautious bias.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP surprised markets once again, with a 25bp rate cut to 6%; more easing is on the cards.
- Congress approved a bill allowing pension-fund withdrawals; financial markets will suffer temporarily.
- Argentina’s BRCA cut rates to 70%, as inflation pressures are easing on a month-to-month basis.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s March inflation data clear a path for solid monetary easing by the COPOM in May…
- …But robust private consumption could mean the BCB adopts a more measured stance in H2.
- Retail sales rebounded sharply in Q1 amid improving credit conditions; will this trend continue?
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Back to the target range, and the near-term outlook is benign.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil - Tailwinds amid political and fiscal headwinds
- Colombia - Supported by economic tailwinds, but…
- Peru - Slump as pension-fund withdrawal fears loom
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Further interest rate cuts likely, as inflation pressures continue to ease.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The minutes of the last policy meeting indicated a more hawkish stance from Banxico than expected.
- But the March inflation data undershot expectations, which will allow the Board to ease its tone.
- This, combined with the expected accommodative stance from the Fed, means more rate cuts ahead.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation consolidated in the Andes in March, but we expect the downtrend to continue in Q2.
- This will provide room for further policy accommodation, but policymakers will proceed with caution…
- …And rate cuts will be modest, given a number of domestic and external threats.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial output is weak in Q1, due to tight financing conditions and despite some bright spots.
- Rising business confidence signals manufacturing will gain momentum in Q2.
- The external accounts remain robust; the 12-month trade surplus is at historic highs…will this continue?
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- A busy week for Andean economies amid economic and political developments.
- Chile’s central bank maintained its stance of gradual easing and flagged inflation risks.
- Upward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts in the IPoM point to a smoother easing path ahead.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Domestic and external factors weighing
- Mexican Peso — Outperforming amid attractive carry
- Colombian Peso — Attractive carry, supportive oil dynamics
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s recovery remains on a solid footing, aided by improving domestic and external conditions.
- The performance is encouraging, but caution is warranted, as the upturn could still face headwinds.
- The good start to the year won’t stop the BCCh cutting rates further, which is still badly needed.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s jobless rate continues to fall, and leading indicators point to a good performance in Q2.
- This improvement will leave the COPOM uneasy, but we believe conditions will stabilise in the near future.
- In his first 100 days in office, Milei tackled the daunting task of addressing Argentina’s problems.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING AND DISINFLATION IS CONTINUING…
- …ENABLING CENTRAL BANKS TO PURSUE FURTHER RATE CUTS
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian inflation overshot in March due to elevated food prices, yet core pressures are stable.
- We expect disinflation to gather momentum in Q2 as weather conditions ameliorate.
- The COPOM meeting minutes hint at further rate reductions of 50bp in May and possibly June.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s BanRep ramped up the easing pace to 50bp, taking rates to a still-eye-watering 12.25%.
- The March decision was a divided vote, with future rate cuts expected to be data-dependent.
- BanRep will have some flexibility, given lower inflation, better external conditions and weak GDP.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The improving inflationary outlook has allowed Banxico to start an easing cycle, by 25bp to 11.00%.
- The forward guidance continues to indicate the potential for further cuts, depending on the data.
- The room for policy easing at the next meetings remains wide open, as inflation will continue to fall.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
