Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Asia Key Issues

The Coronavirus Pandemic

Trade

25 Jan 2021 January Trade is Sluggish, but not Collapsing Under Covid Strain

We've been on the watch for signs of deterioration in foreign trade as a result of renewed anti-Covid restrictions both within Asian countries, causing logistical difficulties,...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)24th Jan 2021 18:10China+

11 Jan 2021 Rising Commodity Prices will soon Show up in China's Trade Figures

Rising Commodity Prices will soon Show up in China's Trade Figures

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)10th Jan 2021 18:10China+

4 Jan 2021 China PMI Gives Early Warning on Producer and Services Prices

China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed, at 51.9 in December, compared with 52.1 in November.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)24th Dec 2020 06:32China+

24 Dec 2020 Is China Santa or the Grinch in the Global Inflation Outlook

China plays a pivotal role in the global inflation outlook.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)23rd Dec 2020 18:10China+

17 Dec 2020 The Risk of a Double-Dip in Japan is Rising, due to the Third Covid Wave

Japan's flash Jibun Bank PMIs for December were mixed, but they broadly confirm the significant moderation in GDP growth in the current quarter.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)16th Dec 2020 16:40China+

16 Dec 2020 China's Q4 Recovery has Wavered Only Slightly, Thanks to Consumers

Industrial production growth in China has peaked, notwithstanding the likely spike in Q1, when the base effects kick in from the Covid- induced shutdowns earlier this year.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)15th Dec 2020 16:20China+

15 Dec 2020 Japan's Punchy Tankan Likely Overstates the Actual Q4 Recovery

Business sentiment in Japan continues to recover in the current quarter, with the main Tankan indices surprising to the upside.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)14th Dec 2020 18:10China+

8 Dec 2020 Read this Before You get Excited About China's Historic Surplus

China's trade surplus rocketed unexpectedly in November, flying to an all-time high of $75.4B.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)7th Dec 2020 18:10China+

3 Dec 2020 Korea's Export Recovery is Back on Track, but Q4 will be More Muted

The recovery in Korean exports resumed in September, with shipments rising by 4.0% year- over-year, a turnaround from the 3.8% decline in the previous month.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)2nd Dec 2020 18:10China+

27 Nov 2020 The BoK's Challenge in 2021 is Managing Rate Hike Expectations

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday left its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 0.50%, as widely expected.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)26th Nov 2020 18:10China+

24 Nov 2020 Korean Exports are Barely Flinching, Bolstering the Case for a BoK Hold

Korea's 20-day trade data for November are one of the first real health checks for global trade since Covid-19 started again to sweep through Europe and the U.S.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)23rd Nov 2020 18:10China+

20 Nov 2020 India's Q3 GDP Rebound will be a Very Hard Act to Follow

India's GDP report for the third quarter, due a week from today, is likely to show that the year- over-year downturn moderated significantly to -9%, from -24% in Q2.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)19th Nov 2020 18:10China+

19 Nov 2020 Japanese Exporters Should Brace for a Bumpy End to 2020

Japan's exports showed no signs of jitters in October, when countries in Europe started reimposing nationwide lockdowns in response to the rapid escalation of Covid-19 cases.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)18th Nov 2020 18:10China+

17 Nov 2020 The Third Virus Wave and the Weak Jobs Market Threaten Japan's Q4

Japan's economy grew by 5.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, recouping just over half of the revised 8.2% contraction in Q2.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)16th Nov 2020 18:10China+

13 Nov 2020 Japan's Sturdy Q3 GDP Rebound will be a Tough Act to Follow

Japan's GDP report for the third quarter, due on Monday, is likely to show that the economy rebounded by 5.2% quarter-on-quarter, following the 7.9% collapse in Q2.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)12th Nov 2020 18:10China+

10 Nov 2020 China's Exporters will Soon Hit a Covid-19 Speedbump

October is likely to be as good as it gets for Chinese exporters for some time, with Covid-19 sweeping through developed markets once again.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)9th Nov 2020 16:00China+

30 Oct 2020 Expect the BoJ to Extend its Covid Support Measures in March

The Bank of Japan yesterday left its -0.10% policy balance rate and ten-year yield target of "around zero" unchanged, as widely expected.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)29th Oct 2020 13:10China+

27 Oct 2020 Japan is Trying to "Live with Covid", but Spending is Hitting a Ceiling

Japan and Korea dealt with their second waves of Covid-19 in the third quarter in completely different ways.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)26th Oct 2020 19:10China+

15 June 2020 Korea's Unemployment Rate will Surpass the Financial Crisis Peak

Korea's unemployment rate rose faster than expected in May, jumping to 4.5%, from 3.8% in April. We've been arguing for some time that the delayed impact of the economic...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)14th Jun 2020 19:10China+

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