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Headline inflation in the EZ likely was a touch stronger than we initially expected in July. Core and headline inflation in Germany is rocketing, mostly due to base effects...
The macro-fundamentals are starting to turn against equities, but the policy put is alive and well. Even if EZ equity earnings rise by 40% over the next year, as analysts...
We look for Q2 GDP growth in the EZ at 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, the same as the consensus. This week's EZ inflation reports for July are a banana-skin for forecasters; don't...
The PMIs point to a sustained, and strong, expan- sion in EZ economic activity at the start of Q3. The renewed surge in virus cases is a threat to the lofty consensus Q3...
The ECB formally presented its new inflation target yesterday, and updated the forward guidance on rates attached to it.
Talking about a green energy transition in Europe is easy, but more often than not, actions fall short of promises, for political reasons.
Earlier this week we delved into German and French inflation data, looking for signs of supply-side price pressures in goods prices, and a reopening bump in Covid-sensitive...
Virus cases fell throughout the second quarter, allowing EZ governments to ease restrictions and the economy to roar back to life.
Yesterday's detailed inflation data in Germany and France were similar, at least as far as the main story goes.
We last set our outlook for the Italian economy at the end of May--see here--and in this Monitor, we take stock of what has changed since. In preview; it's good news.
The ECB sprang a surprise on markets yesterday, releasing the details of its policy review--see here--ahead of the planned announcement in September.
Manufacturing in Germany has stalled. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, including construction, edged lower by 0.3% month-to-month in May, matching the revised...
Weakness in the core remained a drag on euro area manufacturing midway through Q2, amid strength elsewhere.
Judging by the questions we're receiving from readers, and reports in the financial news, the outcome of the ECB's strategic policy review is now starting to occupy investors'...
We recently wrote about the prospects of a reopening leap in core inflation--see here--as the restrictions are eased.
Yesterday's advance CPI data in the Eurozone broadly confirmed our expectations.
Data yesterday revealed that inflation in Germany eased slightly at the end of Q2.
The evidence continues to support our own and consensus forecasts that the euro area economy is roaring back to life in the second quarter.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is currently on tour in Europe, negotiating with national governments on the final makeup of the spending plans for the...
Yesterday's decision by the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged, at -0.75%, was widely expected.
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