Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Key Issues

Brazil Inflation

5 Aug 2021 High Political Risk in the Andes Offsetting Upbeat Economic News

Peruvian New Sol --  President Castillo already on fire Chilean Peso --The copper-driven sell-off Colombian Peso -- Deteriorating fundamentals

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 Aug 2021 We Remain Optimistic about the Reopening Upturn in Ser vices

The PMIs confirm that the Q2 upturn in services continued at the start of the third quarter. Data in France and Spain suggest that hospitality came roaring back in Q2; more to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 Aug 2021 All Set for Record-Busting Q3 GDP Growth in the EZ Economy

We're raising our 2021 growth forecasts for France, mostly due to technicals linked to recent revisions. We now think German GDP will rise by just 2.7% in 2021, but the...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Aug 2021 The Swiss Economy Entered Q3 on the Front Foot

Raft of Swiss data reaffirm our view that the economy is recovering quicker than the Eurozone. The pick-up in Swiss inflation in July is nowhere near enough to set alarm bells...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing. The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 Aug 2021 Punchy Growth in the Periphery to Push EZ Forecasts Higher in Q3

EZ GDP data beat expectations in Q2, which will drive upward revisions to 2021 forecasts. We now expect full-year GDP growth in the Euro- zone of 5.0% in 2021, up from 4.5%...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame... ... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

30 July 2021 German Inflation is now Red Hot, but Broadly as Expected

Headline inflation in the EZ likely was a touch stronger than we initially expected in July. Core and headline inflation in Germany is rocketing, mostly due to base effects...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2021 EZ Equity Investors Can't Look to the Macro Data for Help in H2

The macro-fundamentals are starting to turn against equities, but the policy put is alive and well. Even if EZ equity earnings rise by 40% over the next year, as analysts...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2021 The PMIs Should Offer Some Signs of Stabilisation this Month

Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years... ...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

27 July 2021 What to Expect from the Barrage of EZ Economic Data this Week

We look for Q2 GDP growth in the EZ at 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, the same as the consensus. This week's EZ inflation reports for July are a banana-skin for forecasters; don't...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 July 2021 Welcome to a New, and Even More Dovish, ECB Rate Guidance

The ECB formally presented its new inflation target yesterday, and updated the forward guidance on rates attached to it.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 July 2021 All Change at the ECB Today as It Presents Its New Inflation Target

Today's ECB meeting was supposed to be a snoozer, in which the council goes on holiday with the message that it will hold off making any major decisions on the pace of...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 July 2021 BoJ Playing it Down, but Green Fund Provisioning is Significant

Governor Kuroda was managing expectations about the new green fund-provisioning scheme in the press conference. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 July 2021 EZ Core Inflation will Go Haywire in Q3; Take it With a Pinch of Salt

Friday's detailed inflation data in the EZ conformed to expectations. Headline inflation dipped by 0.1pp, to 1.9%, matching the initial estimate, while core inflation fell to...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 July 2021 Supply Constraints & Reopening Boost Italian & Spanish inflation

Earlier this week we delved into German and French inflation data, looking for signs of supply-side price pressures in goods prices, and a reopening bump in Covid-sensitive...

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 July 2021 How Well did the EZ Economy do in the Second Quarter?

Virus cases fell throughout the second quarter, allowing EZ governments to ease restrictions and the economy to roar back to life.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 July 2021 Supporting Green Finance Could Become a Major BoJ Policy Plank

The BoJ's policy meeting on Friday is set to provide an outline of the fund-provisioning scheme, announced at its June meeting, to support green finance.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 July 2021 On the Hunt for Supply Pressures, and Reopening in the EZ CPI Data

Yesterday's detailed inflation data in Germany and France were similar, at least as far as the main story goes.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 July 2021 Export Trends Remain Weak Despite the June Pop

Chinese exports surprised to the upside in June, with growth picking up to 32.2% year-over-year, from 27.9% in May.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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