- In one line: The Board exercises caution, as forward guidance is limited to one meeting.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
- In one line: Still waiting for the first of a couple green lights.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - The wall between the Fed and the private sector is gone; rates now hurt
- EUROZONE - How resilient is the consensus position on the ECB?
- U.K. - No trigger for change by the MPC; rate cuts still a few months away
- CHINA+ - China’s credit data point to a dull economy; policy uplift yet to come
- EM ASIA - Raising our 2024 CPI forecast for India, and delaying the first RBI cut
- LATAM - Chile’s recovery to continue, along with robust external accounts
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Next couple of months’ data will be more noise than signal.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: The early 2024 misery in exports continues.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Delaying our first RBI rate cut call to August; industry is floundering, forget the H2 2023 ’strength’ in GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - Job growth is on the verge of a serious slowdown, perhaps in March
- EUROZONE - EZ economy at a standstill in Q4; Q1 will be better
- U.K.- Strong real incomes to deliver an economic rebound in 2024
- CHINA+ - NPC: China’s ramps up fiscal support, notably for industrial development
- EM ASIA - Be wary of extrapolating the solid start to 2024 in ASEAN’s PMI
- LATAM - Rapid disinflation in Mexico opens the door to a rate cut this month
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Overshooting expectations, once again, by far.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold, but expect a further rate cut soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
In one line: See you in June, for the first rate cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Virtually similar to January, which is now a hawkish line.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Falling inflation raises expectations of an interest rate cut this month.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
In one line: Ringgit weakness worries BNM, but its opting for non-rate measures.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
In one line: One for the hawks; slowdown easing quicker than previously thought and price intentions rise.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Job growth is set to slow in spring, and cyclical job growth could stop
- EUROZONE - Services inflation too hot for an ECB rate cut in April; June it is then
- U.K.- Forecast Review: Sticky wage growth makes MPC cautious to cut
- CHINA+ - China’s Lunar New Year holiday-spending splurge won’t last
- EM ASIA - 8% growth in India unsustainable, with consumption still lacking
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy stagnates in H2; bold rate cuts still needed
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Is the door now shut on an April cut? Probably.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Falling output in France and Germany is holding back the recovery.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Blame non-core factors for the February bounce.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Thank the labour market—a lagging indicator—for the six-month high.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - Q: Where is the AI boom in the GDP numbers? A: Fast approaching
- EUROZONE- Inflation to wobble around Easter; PMI implies recovery still coming
- U.K.- £20B package of tax cuts coming, despite fragile public finances
- CHINA+ - BoK edging towards a rate cut; Q3 still most likely timing
- EM ASIA - Chickens have come home to roost in Thai GDP; what an abysmal Q4
- LATAM - Banxico to act on further evidence of Mexico’s slowdown and disinflation
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
