- U.S. - Higher for Longer is not Higher Forever; the Distinction Matters
- EUROZONE- Up coming Swiss Election Will Not Move the Needle for the Economy
- U.K. - September CPI Inflation to Hold Steady, Below the MPC’s Forecast
- CHINA+ - Credit Data Reveals China’s Targeted Stimulus Is Enough, for Now
- EM ASIA - Unconvinced Singaporean Manufacturing Is out of the Woods
- LATAM - Minutes Indicate No Rate Cuts from Banxico in the Short Term
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: The bleeding in exports stopped, somewhat, in Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Adopting a wait-and-see approach as both upside and downside risks to growth and inflation pick up.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A quick return back to the RBI’s target range, in the grand scheme of things.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - The Drivers of September’s Outsized Job Gains will not Persist
- EUROZONE- Italy Opts for Supporting Economy over Faster Fiscal Consolidation
- U.K. - Composite PMI Still Too Gloomy, Despite the Big Upward Revision
- CHINA+ - Fading Tokyo Inflation Supports Case for Easy Policy Settings
- EM ASIA - The RBI is Underestimating the Durability of Disinflation, ex-Shocks
- LATAM - Mexico’s Disinflation Fully on Track, but Global Noise an Upside Risk
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Policymakers keep the door open for further rate cuts.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
- In one line: An uneventful October… Expect another hold in December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - Shutdown Averted for Now, but the next Flashpoint is mid-November
- EUROZONE- Core Inflation in the EZ Falling More Quickly Than We Thought
- U.K. - Households Will Keep GDP on a Slowly Rising Path
- CHINA+ - Fading Tokyo Inflation Supports Case for Easy Policy Settings
- EM ASIA - Vietnam’s Q3 Not as Strong as it Looks, but the Trade U-Turn Is Real
- LATAM - Rate Cuts Nearing in Colombia, Despite the Still-Cautious Tone
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Poor numbers, but likely marking the floor.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
In one line: Manufacturing output was still falling at the end of Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: The 2022 fuel price hikes finally disappear from inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Hitting a brick wall at the close of Q3.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: The ECB’s 2024 core inflation forecasts will come down in Q4, a lot.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global