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8th Dec 2022 16:00Eurozone, Daily Monitor

  • The ECB likely is determined to lift its policy rate into restrictive territory by the end of Q1 next year.
  • This implies the yield curve inversion in Germany will persist; we see 2s10s below zero through H1-23.
  • The yield curve will uninvert in H2-23 as two-year yields fall in anticipation of 2024 rate cuts.

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Keywords for: 9 Dec 2022 Eurozone Monitor

ECB, germany, policy, q1, yield curve, yields, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence