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The detailed Q3 GDP data in Germany paint too rosy a picture of growth; a recession is coming.
German consumers’ spending has been resilient so far, but we think this will end in Q4 and Q1.
We now see German growth of just 0.3% in 2023, but that’s still a lot better than the -0.7% consensus.
gdp, gdp data, germany, growth, q3, q3 gdp, q4, recession, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence