Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
We expect another downward revision to Q2 EZ GDP data; probably by 0.1-to-0.2pp.
The EZ economy faces a difficult second half; we look for falling GDP in both Q3 and Q4.
The outlook for employment growth has soured; we think it will slow to just 0.5% by year-end.
We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.
Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.
This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.
Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.
Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.
Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
The EZ trade deficit narrowed in May, helped by a 4.8% month-to-month leap in exports.
The cost of EZ energy imports likely will rise further, but volumes could fall as Russia cuts off the gas.
Imports from China were still soaring in Q2, but we think they will cool soon.
Gas prices likely will rise further as markets come around to the idea of sustained Russian supply cuts.
The weaker euro will keep energy inflation elevated, despite the recent fall in oil prices.
A price cap on Russian oil will be difficult for the West to enforce in practice.
The Spanish economy gained steam in Q2, and probably will do so again in Q3, thanks to tourism.
Italy’s economy will not be so lucky. We have revised down our forecast for H2 & now expect a recession.
One-off fiscal measures in Germany will result in uncomfortably high EZ core inflation for longer.
The details of the June PMIs are not pretty; we are more convinced the EZ is entering a slowdown.
We now think the EZ will be unable to avoid entering a technical recession in Q4.
This will set a weak base for next year; we forecast just 1% GDP growth in the EZ in 2023.
We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.
But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.
We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Region
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence