Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

winter

16 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Net Trade is A Wildcard for Our EZ Recession Call

  • Another rise in imports meant the EZ trade deficit widened further at the start of the third quarter.
  • We suspect net trade will be a drag on GDP growth in H2, but risks to this call are to the upside.
  • Hourly labour costs data confirm what we already know; real wages are falling in the EZ

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor Europe Faces Difficult Trade-Offs on Energy as Winter Approaches

  • The EU proposes further windfall taxes and energy saving to get through winter.
  • Brussels is also mulling big reforms of electricity markets, but likely after Christmas.
  • Delinking gas and electricity prices in the EU would risk outright supply shortages during peak demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP Growth Comfortably Beat Expectations in H1-2022

  • The EZ economy grew by 1.0pp more than the ECB expected in H1, supporting a 75bp hike today.
  • Consumers’ spending rose strongly in Q2, even as real wages fell; that won’t be repeated in H2.
  • Inventories and net trade will be a drag on growth in H2, helping to push the EZ economy into recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Aug 2022 Eurozone Monitor It's all Downhill from Here for Eurozone GDP Growth

We expect another downward revision to Q2 EZ GDP data; probably by 0.1-to-0.2pp.

The EZ economy faces a difficult second half; we look for falling GDP in both Q3 and Q4.

The outlook for employment growth has soured; we think it will slow to just 0.5% by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Are the Largest EZ Economies Already Rationing Energy

We now think it’s likely that the EU manages to fill its gas storage levels to the target 80% by November.

Storage will be drained more this winter than in the past, given lower flows, even assuming no cold snap.

This is despite rationing, which we doubt can be avoided, and will push the EZ into recession by Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor H2 will be Difficult for EZ Manufacturing

Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.

Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.

Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 July 2022 Is This the Bottom for the EZ Trade Deficit? We Think So

The EZ trade deficit narrowed in May, helped by a 4.8% month-to-month leap in exports.

The cost of EZ energy imports likely will rise further, but volumes could fall as Russia cuts off the gas.

Imports from China were still soaring in Q2, but we think they will cool soon.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 July 2022 Taking Stock of the Energy Situation in Europe, Again

Gas prices likely will rise further as markets come around to the idea of sustained Russian supply cuts.

The weaker euro will keep energy inflation elevated, despite the recent fall in oil prices.

A price cap on Russian oil will be difficult for the West to enforce in practice.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 June 2022 Spain's Outlook Is Better Than Italy's, Despite Higher Inflation

The Spanish economy gained steam in Q2, and probably will do so again in Q3, thanks to tourism.

Italy’s economy will not be so lucky. We have revised down our forecast for H2 & now expect a recession.

One-off fiscal measures in Germany will result in uncomfortably high EZ core inflation for longer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 June 2022 Winter is Coming and the Eurozone Economy isn't Ready

The details of the June PMIs are not pretty; we are more convinced the EZ is entering a slowdown.

We now think the EZ will be unable to avoid entering a technical recession in Q4.

This will set a weak base for next year; we forecast just 1% GDP growth in the EZ in 2023.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 May Germany will Enter Recession in the Second Half of the Year

We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.

But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.

We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence