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The EZ goods trade deficit widened again at the end of Q2 as imports rose and exports fell.
Imports should fall soon, but exports are also likely to soften as GDP growth in key trade partners slows.
Net trade will not prevent the incoming recession, exacerbating the impact from falling consumption.
Industrial output rose in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Core inflation in France was still soaring at the start of Q3; the HICP rate could hit 5% by December.
We’re lifting our EZ inflation forecasts; we see no relief for the ECB in the next few months.
The EZ GDP deflators are going haywire; keep an eye on the difference between real and nominal growth.
Soaring import prices mean that the GDP deflator is rising by less than the deflator for domestic demand.
Our forecasts imply a peak in the GDP deflator in Q3, but growth will remain above average through 2024.
Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.
Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.
Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
In one line: Production fell by just over 1% in Q2; we doubt Q3 will be better.
If polls are to be believed, the next Italian government will be formed of a right-wing coalition.
This does not change the near-term outlook for the Italian economy; it will be in recession by Q4.
Markets shouldn’t fear the right wing, but equally they should not forget its unpredictability.
We think Swiss inflation will peak in August; the September reading will be accompanied by a fall in CHF.
Survey data suggest that the risks to our Q3 GDP call for Spain are to the downside...
...Industry won’t dodge the slowdown elsewhere, but our forecast will come down if tourism data turn.
In one line: Upward revision doesn’t change the weak outlook.
Risks are tilted towards a downward revision of Q2 GDP growth in Germany, to a small contraction.
Near-real-time data in Germany are holding up, but surveys and real M1 growth are terrible.
Germany is now likely in recession; we expect tentative signs of a rebound by Q1-23.
The EZ jobless rate held at a record-low in June, but the number of people unemployed rose slightly.
Ukrainian refugees are lifting labour supply less than expected, but we still see joblessness rising in H2.
We think the EZ unemployment rate will rise to 7.0% by year-end; risks to this forecasts are balanced.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
In one line: Revisions will change the story for EZ GDP soon; Core inflation will stay at 4% through Q3.
In one line: GDP will soon be falling; a rise in labour supply is lifting the unemployment rate.
In one line: Stronger than expected; Brace for a tough H2.
In one line: As we expected Spain did the heavy lifting in Q2
In one line: Robust, but it was all net exports and inventories.
HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.
Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.
ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.
The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.
ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.
Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.
Inflation likely remained hot in July as a rise in food inflation and the core rate offset a falling energy rate.
GDP data will paint a picture of a weak EZ economy ahead of a probable recession in H2.
We pencilled-in a contraction in Germany, but a pick-up in growth in each of the rest of the big four.
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