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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

non-energy goods inflation

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, November 2021

In one line: A record high, but it still doesn’t justify rate expectations. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending & Inflation, France, October & November

In one line: Spending starts Q4 on a weak foot; energy inflation drives the headline higher in November.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Nov 2021 #HereWeGoAgain: Covid is Once Again Haunting Markets

  • B.1.1.529 could be a grim game-changer in the pandemic, but it is too soon to say.
  • The slowdown in real M1 growth indicates that the composite EZ PMI will fall to 53 in Q1.
  • French consumer sentiment data indicate that unemployment is now below 7%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

22 Nov 2021 Swiss GDP Recovered in Q3; SNB seems OK with EURCHF at 1.05

  • Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
  • Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
  • The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, September 2021

In one line: A rebound, at last; all set for a solid Q4.  

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, October 2021

In one line: Energy inflation is still rocketing; the core is held up by robust services inflation. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Nov 2021 EZ Households have Financial Firepower, but will they Use it?

  • EZ consumers' spending rose solidly in Q2 and Q3, boosted by services, and growth should stay robust.
  • The level of excess savings was 2.5-to-3.0% of GDP as of Q2; this could boost spending through 2022...
  • ...But if the savings rate stays elevated, and consum- ers sit on their cash pile, spending will disappoint.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

PM Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, October 2021

In one line: Still going up, but the upturn in the core is levelling off. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Nov 2021 Markets are Listening to the ECB, but Still Expect a Hike in 2022

  • Futures-implied interest rates have declined sharply, but markets still look for a hike in 2022.
  • Volatility in short-term rate expectations points to a quicker-than-expected slowdown in QE next year.
  • Strong earnings have protected equities from fixed income volatility, but growth is now slowing.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

5 Nov 2021 More Evidence that German Manufacturing Hit a Wall in Q3

  • German factory orders are losing momentum, and output flatlined at the end of Q3.
  • Virus cases are still rising in the Eurozone; Germany is hit hardest, due to a surge in the south-east. 
  • The PMIs point to EZ GDP growth at 0.5-to-1.0% q/q in Q4, with risks tilted to the downside. 

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Q3 GDP & Inflation, Eurozone

In one line: EZ GDP is within touching distance of its pre-virus level; inflation is still running hot. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: German State CPI, October 2021

In one line: German inflation rose more than expected in October. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Oct 2021 German GDP Rose Strongly in Q3, but by Less than the Consensus

  • We think GDP in Germany rose by 1.8% q/q in Q3, 0.4pp slower than the consensus forecast.
  • Sell-side forecasts for German GDP growth in 2021 will have to come down, to around 2.5%…
  • …And we also struggle with consensus expectations for 4-to-4.5% growth in 2022; we're at 3.5%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Oct 2021 Spain's Government is Predicting a Growth Party in 2022; Is it Right?

  • The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year...
  • ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to us.
  • The budget deficit is all but certain to be higher than the government’s 5% estimate next year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2021 How to Understand and Use Inflation Expectations in the EZ

  • EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
  • Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
  • We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, September 2021

  • In one line: Still going up, but it probably won’t go much higher. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, September 2021

  • In one line: Energy inflation is still rising; the HICP core rate likely jumped.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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