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Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.
Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.
Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.
Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in September, but we no longer see a hike in February.
The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....
...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.
HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.
Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.
ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.
The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.
ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.
Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.
Most measures of inflation expectations are falling, supporting our view that inflation is near its peak.
After starting its hiking cycle last week, the ECB will be able to take a break next year.
The drop in the IFO adds to the evidence that the EZ’s largest economy is now in a technical recession.
We think the ECB will raise its depo-rate by 25bp this week, to -0.25%; a 50bp hike would not be a shock.
The ECB’s new anti-fragmentation tool probably won’t be unveiled in full this week.
Output in euro area construction fell in Q2, but it was only a minor drag on GDP growth.
In one line: Q2 was still good but brace for a tough H2.
The German jobless rate jumped in June, as Ukrainian refugees were incorporated into the labour force.
This will be mirrored elsewhere, which means the EZ workforce is now bigger than we previously thought.
With demand for labour slowing, we think this will push the unemployment rate up to 7.2% by year-end.
Volatility in inventories and net exports has thrown near-term German GDP forecasts into disarray.
We’re sticking with our assumption of 1.5% growth in 2022, which includes a technical recession in H2.
Market forecasts for German growth will fall further, but we could well have to lift ours too.
We continue to expect a pick-up in services activity to drive GDP growth higher this quarter, to 0.5% q/q.
Eurostat’s “new” services index shows activity was already rebounding in February.
This will offset continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, which is set to remain in the doldrums.
EZ producer output price inflation has been surging recently, on the back of higher energy prices.
All signs point to a fall in the rate in the coming months, which would weigh on the CPI headline.
We concede, though, that the risks to this call are to the upside, and largely related to energy.
The fall in the EZ budget deficit slowed in Q4, as governments ramped up fiscal support again.
We look for a smaller fall in the budget deficit this year than last, despite strong automatic stabilisers.
France’s electorate voted to maintain the status quo, but low turnout means Macron cannot rest easy yet.
EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...
...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.
We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.
EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.
Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.
Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.
Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.
The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.
The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.
The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.
EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.
An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.
The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.
We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.
Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.
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