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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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8 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor H2 will be Difficult for EZ Manufacturing

Industrial production firmed in Germany, France and Spain in June, but it fell in Italy.

Advance data suggest that EZ industrial production was unchanged in June, factoring-in a fall in Ireland.

Industrial output fell by less than we feared in Q2, but leading indicators still point to a difficult H2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Aug 2022 EZ Monitor Robust GDP and Inflation Data Point to a 50bp Hike in September

Strong EZ macro data signal a 50bp hike in  September, but we no longer see a hike in February.

The German economy stalled in Q2, setting the scene for a technical recession in H2....

...EZ GDP rose by a solid 0.7% q/q in Q2, but we think it will be revised lower in time, probably to 0.4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 July 2022 EZ Monitor German core HICP inflation is still rising; it will peak in September

HICP core inflation in Germany rose further in July; it will peak in September, at just under 4%.

Energy inflation in Germany is now falling, but upside risks in gas and electricity are still substantial.

ESI sank in July, adding to the evidence of a significant slowdown in the EZ economy.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 July 2022 EZ Monitor Italian Surveys Softened in July; EZ Real M1 Growth is still Depressed

The slowdown in real M1 growth continues to suggest that the EZ economy is now in recession.

ISTAT’s ESI for Italy for July supports our view that Italy, with Germany, will be drags on EZ activity in Q3.

Consumers are shifting their attention to the worsening economic environment.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 July 2022 EZ Monitor Falling EZ Inflation Expectations will be a Relief for the ECB

Most measures of inflation expectations are falling, supporting our view that inflation is near its peak.

After starting its hiking cycle last week, the ECB will be able to take a break next year.

The drop in the IFO adds to the evidence that the EZ’s largest economy is now in a technical recession.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 July 2022 The ECB will Lift its Depo Rate by 25bp this week...or Maybe 50bp

We think the ECB will raise its depo-rate by 25bp this week, to -0.25%; a 50bp hike would not be a shock.

The ECB’s new anti-fragmentation tool probably won’t be unveiled in full this week.

Output in euro area construction fell in Q2, but it was only a minor drag on GDP growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 July 2022 Falling Demand, and Rising Supply, will Push Up the EZ Jobless Rate

The German jobless rate jumped in June, as Ukrainian refugees were incorporated into the labour force.

This will be mirrored elsewhere, which means the EZ workforce is now bigger than we previously thought.

With demand for labour slowing, we think this will push the unemployment rate up to 7.2% by year-end.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 May 2022 The Near-Term Uncertainty over German GDP Growth is Rising

Volatility in inventories and net exports has thrown near-term German GDP forecasts into disarray.

We’re sticking with our assumption of 1.5% growth in 2022, which includes a technical recession in H2.

Market forecasts for German growth will fall further, but we could well have to lift ours too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 May 2022 Ignore the Softer Services PMI; the Sector is Booming

We continue to expect a pick-up in services activity to drive GDP growth higher this quarter, to 0.5% q/q.

Eurostat’s “new” services index shows activity was already rebounding in February.

This will offset continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, which is set to remain in the doldrums.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Apr 2022 Rise in PPI Inflation a Risk, but Not a Sign of Things to Come for CPI

EZ producer output price inflation has been surging recently, on the back of higher energy prices.

All signs point to a fall in the rate in the coming months, which would weigh on the CPI headline.

We concede, though, that the risks to this call are to the upside, and largely related to energy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Apr 2022 The EZ Budget Deficit will Fall in 2022, but by Less than in 2021

The fall in the EZ budget deficit slowed in Q4, as governments ramped up fiscal support again.

We look for a smaller fall in the budget deficit this year than last, despite strong automatic stabilisers.

France’s electorate voted to maintain the status quo, but low turnout means Macron cannot rest easy yet.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, April

In one line:  Better than expected but still weak. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Apr 2022 Services Propels the EZ Economy into Q2 on a Solid Footing

EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...

...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.

We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Apr 2022 Outlook for Services Remains Bright unlike that for Industry

Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.

The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.

The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Apr 2022 The Euro Area Trade Deficit Likely Widened Further in Q1

The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.

EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.

An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Apr 2022 How Far will the Composite EZ PMI Fall in the Second Quarter?

The PMIs point to solid economic activity at the end of Q1, but look out for weakness in Q2.

We see full-year growth in France at just under 3.5% in 2022, matching the consensus.

Consumers' spending is a wildcard; a fall in the savings rate is needed to maintain growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Mar 2022 Higher Energy Prices Mean Slower Growth in Italy

  • Italy is the second-most reliant major EZ economy on Russian gas, after Germany.
  • Cutting reliance on Russian gas is already hurting industry; we are revising down our GDP forecasts.
  • We have revised up our EZ inflation estimate for March, after Spanish & German headlines surged.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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