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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

ifo expectations

10 May Germany will Enter Recession in the Second Half of the Year

We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.

But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.

We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, April 2022

In one line: Sentiment sours as concerns about high inflation deepen. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Apr 2022 The EZ Budget Deficit will Fall in 2022, but by Less than in 2021

The fall in the EZ budget deficit slowed in Q4, as governments ramped up fiscal support again.

We look for a smaller fall in the budget deficit this year than last, despite strong automatic stabilisers.

France’s electorate voted to maintain the status quo, but low turnout means Macron cannot rest easy yet.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, April

In one line:  Better than expected but still weak. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Apr 2022 Outlook for Services Remains Bright unlike that for Industry

Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.

The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.

The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Apr 2022 The Euro Area Trade Deficit Likely Widened Further in Q1

The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.

EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.

An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Apr 2022 The ECB will Repeat the March Message Today; QE will End in Q3

The ECB will stick to the script today; net asset purchases will end in Q3, data permitting.

We are more hawkish than the consensus on rate hikes in 2022, but more dovish for the 2023 outlook.

Is the ECB developing a new QE tool, and if so, does that mean an end to "sequencing"?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Apr 2022 German Inflation was Still Red Hot in March, but it will Ease in Q2

Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.

They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.

The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Apr 2022 The German Economy is Down, But Not Out, at Least Not Yet

German industrial production fell in February, but probably did O.K. through Q1 as a whole.

Near-real-time data suggest that mobility improved in the wake of the war, but manufacturing softened.

Surveys point to a sharp fall in German GDP growth at the end of Q1, but not a recession.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 Apr 2022 France is Set for Another Face-Off Between Macron and Le Pen

The stage is set for Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen to make it through Sunday's vote, just in 2017.

Mr. Macron is in a strong position to beat Ms. Le Pen in a run-off, but the gap is closing, quickly.

Germany's trade surplus likely rebounded in Q1; EZ investor sentiment is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Mar 2022 Spain was Already Falling Behind and Now the Outlook Worsens

  • Spain's economy ended last year further below its pre-virus level than other major EZ economies...
  • ...Now growth is slowing, and the outlook for Q2-Q4 is clouded by a hit to real incomes.
  • The IFO was miserable in March, and real M1 growth points to an EZ PMI of 50 by summer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: IFO, Germany, March 2022

In one line: Business sentiment sours, will official data reflect this? 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Mar 2022 Brace for the First Post-War Data in the Eurozone Economy

  • Investor sentiment points to a fall in this week's eco- nomic surveys; brace for downside surprises.
  • Near-real-time data signal little in the way of a direct hit to activity from the war in Ukraine, yet.
  • The Eurozone's trade deficit narrowed slightly in January; is the deficit with China now shrinking?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Mar 2022 Italian Bonds are Holding On; will the End of QE be Too Much?

  • Italian government bond yields likely will rise further in the run-up to the end of QE...
  • ...But they will reverse some of their increase later in the year, even as the ECB tightening cycle begins.
  • EZ headline inflation could hit 7% in the second quarter, with core inflation rising to just over 3%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: EZ Industrial production & ZEW

In one line: Industry starts the year on weak footing & war in Ukraine clouds outlook; investor sentiment nosedives in March. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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