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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.
But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.
We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.
In one line: Sentiment sours as concerns about high inflation deepen.
In one line: Consumer sentiment nosedives.
The fall in the EZ budget deficit slowed in Q4, as governments ramped up fiscal support again.
We look for a smaller fall in the budget deficit this year than last, despite strong automatic stabilisers.
France’s electorate voted to maintain the status quo, but low turnout means Macron cannot rest easy yet.
EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.
Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.
Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.
Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.
The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.
The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.
The Eurozone’s trade deficit probably widened further midway through the first quarter.
EZ imports from China likely are now slowing, but the cost of energy imports is soaring.
An EU embargo on Russian gas could be an economic own goal, but a crucial political signal.
The ECB will stick to the script today; net asset purchases will end in Q3, data permitting.
We are more hawkish than the consensus on rate hikes in 2022, but more dovish for the 2023 outlook.
Is the ECB developing a new QE tool, and if so, does that mean an end to "sequencing"?
Energy and food inflation were still soaring in Germany at the end of the first quarter.
They will remain drags on real income growth, but a cut in fuel duties will help significantly in Q2.
The widening French trade deficit in goods doesn't tell the whole story; the services surplus is booming.
German industrial production fell in February, but probably did O.K. through Q1 as a whole.
Near-real-time data suggest that mobility improved in the wake of the war, but manufacturing softened.
Surveys point to a sharp fall in German GDP growth at the end of Q1, but not a recession.
The stage is set for Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen to make it through Sunday's vote, just in 2017.
Mr. Macron is in a strong position to beat Ms. Le Pen in a run-off, but the gap is closing, quickly.
Germany's trade surplus likely rebounded in Q1; EZ investor sentiment is still falling.
In one line: Higher inflation is hitting consumer sentiment.
In one line: Business sentiment sours, will official data reflect this?
In one line: Industry starts the year on weak footing & war in Ukraine clouds outlook; investor sentiment nosedives in March.
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