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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

german unemployment

2 Dec 2021 House prices in the EZ are Rocketing; Does it Matter?

  • Eurozone house prices are rising at their fastest pace since before the global financial crisis..
  • ...Indicative signs point to further upside ahead, supporting consumer spending...
  • ...But the virus remains a threat in the near term, weighing on consumer confidence.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

30 Nov 2021 Credit Growth Remains Brisk Heading into Q4; the ESI Falls

  • Lending growth has accelerated in the EZ, thanks to a pick-up in lending to firms...
  • ...This is positive for the outlook for EZ investment, but will the new virus wave nip it in the bud?
  • The decline in the ESI suggests GDP growth took a leg down in Q4; it will drop further in December.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Nov 2021 #HereWeGoAgain: Covid is Once Again Haunting Markets

  • B.1.1.529 could be a grim game-changer in the pandemic, but it is too soon to say.
  • The slowdown in real M1 growth indicates that the composite EZ PMI will fall to 53 in Q1.
  • French consumer sentiment data indicate that unemployment is now below 7%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

16 Nov 2021 Italy set to Underperform Spain's Labour Market Recovery

  • EZ Labour demand has surged and the supply-side labour market recovery has also been impressive...
  • ...But in Italy the participation rate remains below its pre-virus level, trailing that in Spain.
  • We expect the jobless rate in both to fall over the coming quarters, but Italy will underperform.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

8 Nov 2021 Is the EZ Economy Running on Empty at the Start of Q4?

  • GDP growth in Germany stalled at the end of Q3, and the rebound in early Q4 looks tepid.
  • Growth in France is now slowing, but momentum at the end of Q3 was encouragingly robust.
  • Industrial production in Spain rose modestly in September, not enough to salvage Q3 as a whole.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

4 Nov 2021 Will Unemployment in the Eurozone Hit 6% by 2023?

  • EZ unemployment fell again in September, and survey data point to further improvement in Q4.
  • We think Eurozone unemployment will fall below 7% next year, hitting 6% by 2023.
  • The SNB is fine with EURCHF closing in on 1.05, but only for as long as inflation is rising.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

29 Oct 2021 Either Markets aren't Listening to the ECB, or they Don't Believe it

  • Ms. Lagarde pushed back against rate expectations yesterday, but markets didn't listen.
  • A deposit rate hike in 2022 would mean a swift end of QE next year; that won't happen.
  • Eurozone inflation likely blew past the consensus again in October; we look for a headline of 4% y/y.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, October 2021

In one line: A big fall in claims, but the smoothed trend is now rolling over. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Oct 2021 The ECB will Push Back Against Rising Rate Expectations Today

  • Rising rate expectations are at odds with the ECB's forward guidance; we expect a push-back today.
  • We still think the PEPP will end in March, but don't look for a clear signal today either way.
  • Mixed consumer confidence data in the core, and a slowdown in headline EZ money supply growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Oct 2021 German GDP Rose Strongly in Q3, but by Less than the Consensus

  • We think GDP in Germany rose by 1.8% q/q in Q3, 0.4pp slower than the consensus forecast.
  • Sell-side forecasts for German GDP growth in 2021 will have to come down, to around 2.5%…
  • …And we also struggle with consensus expectations for 4-to-4.5% growth in 2022; we're at 3.5%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Oct 2021 Core Inflation in Germany Will Rise above 3% in the Fourth Quarter

  • German core inflation is still rising; we think it will hit 3%-plus in Q4, before easing in January.
  • Electricity inflation in Spain is still rocketing, threatening consumer's real incomes and industry.
  • Core inflation in Spain is now back at its pre-virus rate; should we be looking for an overshoot now?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Oct 2021 We're Reducing our Q3 GDP Growth Forecasts in Germany

  • German auto output crashed in August; we're nudging our Q3 GDP growth forecasts down, to 2.0% q/q.
  • The Q3 plunge in German industry is clear evidence that supply-side woes are now hitting demand.
  • The services surplus in France is rising strongly; net exports likely rebounded in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Oct 2021 German Manufacturing Crashed in Q3, but it Did Better Elsewhere

  • German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead.
  • Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector rose strongly.
  • EZ gas prices continue to climb, the risk to household income is rising, but hard to quantify.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Oct 2021 Another Month, Another Upside Surprise in the EZ Inflation Data

  • EZ inflation rose further in September, probably by 0.5pp to 3.5%, higher than the consensus, 3.3%.
  • Core inflation in the EZ was lifted by gains in Italy and Germany in September.
  • The rate of improvement in the EZ labour market is now slowing, but unemployment is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Sept 2021 What is the Fiscal Multiplier for Government Spending in Italy

  • The Italian government's GDP growth forecast for next year looks too high to us.
  • Spain's new ERTE scheme is the first of, probably many, Covid-led labour market reforms in the EZ.
  • We continue to expect the EZ jobless rate to fall be- low most estimates of NAIRU by end-2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Sept 2021 The ECB is on Team-Transitory on Rising Inflation in the EZ, for Now

  • Ms. Lagarde strikes a dovish tone at the ECB Forum, but sticks to the script that PEPP will end in Q1. 

    Rate expectations have increased substantially in the EZ; we doubt the ECB is happy with this. 

    Solid consumer sentiment data in France and Germany offer contrast to soft business surveys. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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