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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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BTP yields have risen further than their counterparts in recent months, as ECB tightening edges closer.
More issuance and the end to QE point to a further increase in long-term bond yields in Italy.
The BTP yield curve will steepen further, despite higher ECB policy rates driving up short rates.
EZ headline inflation will remain above 7% through Q2, mainly due to higher core and food inflation.
We now see EZ core inflation above 3% through 2022, adding to our conviction of a rate hike in July.
Inflation expectations are rising in the euro area, but we see little evidence of a wage-price spiral.
In one line: Still hot; core inflation will stay above 3% through Q3, at least.
EZ trade data show that sanctions hit trade with Russia hard, and energy imports fell in March.
Progress in imposing an oil ban has stalled, as four countries, led by Hungary, threaten to veto it...
...The risk to our assumption that the EU will push ahead with a ban on gas soon, is towards no ban.
The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...
...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.
EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.
In one line: Core inflation is now at 3%, where it will stay until Q4, at least.
The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.
We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.
Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.
In one line: Core and food inflation climbed; energy inflation fell, a bit.
Hawkish comments from Isabel Schnabel seal the deal on a July rate hike, probably by 25bp.
Germany’s nominal trade surplus plunged in March, due mainly to a collapse in exports to Russia.
Retail sales in the Eurozone are flatlining, due almost exclusively to soaring prices.
In one line: Activity picked up pace in April, will the new Russian oil ban reverse this?
Inflation rose again in April, and the risk is that it will creep even higher as price increases broaden.
Energy inflation should continue to fall, but will remain elevated through Q2, at least.
The ECB will have to lift its inflation forecasts in June before starting to hike rates, probably in September.
In one line: GDP growth slows a touch; rising core inflation more than offsets the fall in the energy rate.
In one line: French inflation rises despite fall in energy rate; Spanish economy defiant in the face of Omicron and widespread strikes.
The electricity price cap in Spain means energy inflation there will fall further than previously thought.
German food and core inflation surprised to the upside in April, offsetting the fall in energy inflation.
Today's EZ release will show a smaller fall than we previously forecast; to 7.0% from 7.4% in March.
In one line: Another rise, despite a confirmed fall in energy inflation.
EZ producer output price inflation has been surging recently, on the back of higher energy prices.
All signs point to a fall in the rate in the coming months, which would weigh on the CPI headline.
We concede, though, that the risks to this call are to the upside, and largely related to energy.
EZ economic activity accelerated heading into the second quarter...
...All thanks to a pick-up in services activity; manufacturing nearly stalled, as German output fell.
We expect GDP growth to accelerate in Q2, barring an immediate embargo on Russian energy imports.
EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.
Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.
Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.
In one line: Small downward revision doesn’t change the picture of hot inflation.
Industry provided a boost to GDP growth in Q1, despite the downward revision to January’s outturn.
The outlook for industry is bleak, but should be offset by relatively bright prospects for services.
The IMF’s downward revision to its EZ GDP growth estimate for 2022 brings it in line with us.
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